Alternative future images of Tehran: scenario-based analysis

Abstract

Purpose Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty will be increased when our thoughts and decisions address the city’s long-term future. Considering these issues, the need for future thinking and alternate thinking in the process of urban management and planning becomes even more necessary. The purpose of this paper is to identify and explain the alternate futures of Tehran. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, this study have tried to study alternate future images of Tehran in an archetypal form of “growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society” using “Dator’s Four Generic Alternate Futures” method. Findings These alternate futures, after identifying their key trends and drivers, have been narrated in the form of four scenarios called: “capital business center,” “crossing the fate of ray,” “Tehran family” and “Tehran investigators.” Increasing the authority and responsibility of the local governance, modification of Tehran urban management model and development of voluntary cooperation and democratic participation, are among the policy recommendations made on the basis of these images. Originality/value Achieving these images in parallel with identifying the most important challenges and opportunities in alternate futures will provide the basis for policy-making in Tehran’s future urban governance. It can be a creative model for developing future images for other cities.

Mission-oriented scenarios: a new method for urban foresight

“…Daniels et al (2021) described the application of the scenario archetypes method with other methods (including Delphi), in Houston, with a long-term time horizon (2050) and with a focus on the impact of climate change, particularly extreme weather events that cause frequent flooding in the city. Firoozpour et al (2021) applied the Manoa School Four Futures Method to local development policies of the Theran metropolitan area, extracting the main DFs from a qualitative analysis of historical and policy-related documents of the city, and sorting them with the six sectors approach grid. Dubois and Dimanch (2021) used the four archetypes to analyse the future implications of COVID-19 pandemic for entertainment dependent cities after the decline of touristic fluxes (Dubois and Dimanch, 2021).…”