Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole”

Pan, Zaitao; Arritt, Raymond W.; Takle, Eugene S.; Gutowski, William J.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Segal, M.

doi:10.1029/2004gl020528

Cited by 198 publications

(193 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…The HadCM2 scenario climate simulation assumed a 1% yr Ϫ1 increase of effective greenhouse gas concentrations after 1990. The 10-yr window used from the scenario climate was the decade 2040-49 (Pan et al 2001b). In this work, ''climate change'' is the scenario minus contemporary difference between RCM simulations driven for these two HadCM2 periods.…”

Section: B Models and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, due to storage problems that produced gaps in output archives for the suite of simulations, we have restricted analyses to periods for which output from both models is available: 1981-88 for reanalysis-driven runs and final 9 yr for each GCM-driven run. Pan et al (2001b) give further details of the models and simulations and discuss general features of the precipitation output and its change under enhanced greenhouse warming.…”

Section: B Models and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We have studied a variety of hydroclimate issues using this suite of simulations, such as uncertainties in projecting climate change (Pan et al 2001b), downscaling for simulating surface hydrology (Wilby et al 2000;Hay et al 2002;Jha et al 2004), soil moisture changes (Pan et al 2001a), extreme precipitation events (Kunkel et al 2002), a seasonal precipitation deficit in GCM and RCM simulations , and a central U.S. "warming hole" . Although updated versions exist for the RCMs and GCM used here, we have substantial understanding of the behavior of this well-diagnosed suite, which aids our diagnosis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

Gutowski

Takle

Kozak

et al. 2007

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively simple pattern for nearly all regions and seasons examined whereby nearly all high-intensity daily precipitation contributes a larger fraction of the total precipitation, and nearly all low-intensity precipitation contributes a reduced fraction. The percentile separating relative decrease from relative increase occurs around the 70th percentile of cumulative precipitation, irrespective of the governing precipitation processes or which model produced the simulation. Changes in normalized distributions display these features much more consistently than distribution changes without normalization.Further analysis suggests that this consistent response in precipitation intensity may be a consequence of the intensity spectrum's adherence to a gamma distribution. Under the gamma distribution, when the total precipitation or number of precipitation days changes, there is a single transition between precipitation rates that contribute relatively more to the total and rates that contribute relatively less. The behavior is roughly the same as the results of the numerical models and is insensitive to characteristics of the baseline climate, such as average precipitation, frequency of rain days, and the shape parameter of the precipitation's gamma distribution. Changes in the normalized precipitation distribution give a more consistent constraint on how precipitation intensity may change when climate changes than do changes in the nonnormalized distribution. The analysis does not apply to extreme precipitation for which the theory of statistical extremes more likely provides the appropriate description. ABSTRACT Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively simple pattern for nearly all regions and seasons examined whereby nearly all high-intensity daily precipitation contributes a larger fraction of the total precipitation, and nearly all low-intensity precipitation contributes a reduced fraction. The percentile separating relative decrease from relative increase occurs around the 70th percentile of cumulative precipitation, irrespective of the governing precipitation processes or which model produced the simulation. Changes in normalized distributions display these features much more consistently than distribution changes without normalization.Further analysis suggests that this consistent response in precipitation intensity may be a consequence of the intensity spectrum's adherence to a gamma distribution. Under the gamma distribution, when the total precipitation or number of p...

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Section: B Models and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B Models and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

Gutowski

Takle

Kozak

et al. 2007

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…Pan et al (2004) found that enhanced greenhouse gases produced a circulation response that increased the frequency of the southerly low-level jet over the southern Great Plains in late summer, which in turn replenished soil moisture and suppressed temperature extremes. They concluded this mechanism could induce a warming hole.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol trends as a potential driver of regional climate in the central United States: evidence from observations

et al. 2017

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Abstract. In situ surface observations show that downward surface solar radiation (SWdn) over the central and southeastern United States (US) has increased by 0.58-1.0 Wm −2 a −1 over the 2000-2014 time frame, simultaneously with reductions in US aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 3.3-5.0 × 10 −3 a −1 . Establishing a link between these two trends, however, is challenging due to complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, and radiation. Here we investigate the clear-sky aerosol-radiation effects of decreasing US aerosols on SWdn and other surface variables by applying a one-dimensional radiative transfer to 2000-2014 measurements of AOD at two Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites in the central and southeastern United States. Observations characterized as "clear-sky" may in fact include the effects of thin cirrus clouds, and we consider these effects by imposing satellite data from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) into the radiative transfer model. The model predicts that 2000-2014 trends in aerosols may have driven clear-sky SWdn trends of +1.35 Wm −2 a −1 at Goodwin Creek, MS, and +0.93 Wm −2 a −1 at Bondville, IL. While these results are consistent in sign with observed trends, a cross-validated multivariate regression analysis shows that AOD reproduces 20-26 % of the seasonal (June-September, JJAS) variability in clear-sky direct and diffuse SWdn at Bondville, IL, but none of the JJAS variability at Goodwin Creek, MS. Using in situ soil and surface flux measurements from the Ameriflux network and Illinois Climate Network (ICN) together with assimilated meteorology from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), we find that sunnier summers tend to coincide with increased surface air temperature and soil moisture deficits in the central US. The 1990-2015 trends in the NLDAS SWdn over the central US are also of a similar magnitude to our modeled 2000-2014 clear-sky trends. Taken together, these results suggest that climate and regional hydrology in the central US are sensitive to the recent reductions in aerosol concentrations. Our work has implications for severely polluted regions outside the US, where improvements in air quality due to reductions in the aerosol burden could inadvertently pose an enhanced climate risk.

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“…Here, we explore development of an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that retains the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o) while allowing mapping further south into the subtropics. This permits assessment of spring onset variations and trends in the southeastern United States (SEUS), particularly in reference to this region constituting a 'warming hole', where the secular trend during the past century has been towards later hard freezes (Marino et al, 2011) and generally cooler springs and summers (Robinson et al, 2002;Pan et al, 2004;Kunkel et al , 2006;Wang et al, 2009;Meehl et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

2012

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Phenological data are simple yet sensitive indicators of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but observations have not been made routinely or extensively enough to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns across most continents, including North America. As an alternative, many studies use weather-based algorithms to simulate specific phenological responses. Spring Indices (SI) are a set of complex phenological models that have been successfully applied to evaluate variations and trends in the onset of spring across the Northern Hemisphere's temperate regions. To date, SI models have been limited by only producing output in locations where both the plants' chilling and warmth requirements are met. Here, we develop an extended form of the SI (abbreviated SI-x) that expands their application into the subtropics by ignoring chilling requirements while still retaining the utility and accuracy of the original SI (now abbreviated SI-o).The validity of the new indices is tested, and regional SI anomalies are explored across the data-rich continental United States. SI-x variations from 1900 to 2010 show an abrupt and sustained delay in spring onset of about 4-8 d (around 1958) in parts of the Southeast and southern Great Plains, and a comparable advance of 4-8 d (around 1984) in parts of the northern Great Plains and the West. Atmospheric circulation anomalies, linked to large-scale modes of variability, exert modest but significant roles in the timing of spring onset across the United States on interannual and longer timescales. The SI-x are promising metrics for tracking spring onset variations and trends in mid-latitudes, relating them to relevant ecological, hydrological, and socioeconomic phenomena, and exploring connections between atmospheric drivers and seasonal timing.

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Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole”

Cited by 198 publications

References 24 publications

A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

A Possible Constraint on Regional Precipitation Intensity Changes under Global Warming

Aerosol trends as a potential driver of regional climate in the central United States: evidence from observations

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices

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