All I do is win, no matter what? What matters in gaining electoral support from televised debates

Waldvogel, Thomas; König, Pascal D.; Wagschal, Uwe

doi:10.15581/003.36.1.127-149

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…These findings suggest that voters' initial impressions of the candidates' warmth and competence strongly influence their subsequent evaluations after the debate. Recent research on the subject supports this idea, claiming that debates might enhance subjective judgments of candidates and, potentially, change voting intentions (Waldvogel et al, 2023).…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Moreover, they represent key opportunities for a candidate to gain electoral traction and may be decisive in close races where voters evaluate whether candidates are suitable for office based on their leadership style and traits (Benoit et al, 2003). Naturally, the media, the public, and academia became quite interested in them (Waldvogel et al, 2023).…”

Section: Background People Only Know What They See On Tvmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the early 1960s, television has influenced how the public perceives politicians, as candidates and political advisors have come to understand the usefulness of engaging the public in debates and interviews (Wicks et al, 2017). Televised political debates represent effective avenues of communication during campaigns due to the volume of comments they attract on social media and the relatively unmediated nature of the communication they provide in a hostile atmosphere (Waldvogel et al, 2023). However, even though the importance of debates is widely discussed, it is still unknown how they affect voters (Baboš & Világi, 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Grand Finale

Falcão,

Sousa,

Moreira

et al. 2024

Journal of Media Psychology

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The 2019 televised debate between the leaders of the two main Portuguese parties for the general elections in Portugal drew approximately 2.7 million viewers. Debates constitute a centrepiece of campaigns, allowing candidates to showcase their proposals. The importance of debates in election campaigns reflects their possible influence in changing voters’ perspectives. As the standards for judging candidates increasingly rely on non-political characteristics such as personality traits, we examine the effects of debates on voters’ judgments of the warmth and competence of candidates and their voting intentions. We employed a within subject’s pretest/postest design to monitor participants before and after the debate between the leaders of the two main parties in Portugal, António Costa (Socialist Party, PS) and Rui Rio (Social-Democrat Party, PSD) for the Portuguese 2019 legislative elections. A comprehensive statistical pipeline was implemented to isolate the effects of the debate. Evidence suggesting that the debate influenced the perceived warmth and competence of both candidates was found. This study contributes to the literature on debates and supports the claim that they may shift voters’ perceptions and attitudes.

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Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Background People Only Know What They See On Tvmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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The Grand Finale

Falcão,

Sousa,

Moreira

et al. 2024

Journal of Media Psychology

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How to convince in a televised debate: the application of machine learning to analyze why viewers changed their winner perception during the 2021 German chancellor discussion

Ettensperger,

Waldvogel,

Wagschal

et al. 2023

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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What causes viewers to change their winner perception during a televised debate? The article addresses this question, drawing on a large-N field study of the 2021 chancellor debate in Germany, which contains survey and real-time response data for 4613 participants. Using machine learning techniques, we identify determinants of why participants change their opinion about who is winning the discussion during the debate. Our analysis based on random forest and decision tree models shows in detail, first, what factors drive debate winner perceptions in the course of televised debate reception. Second, we reveal what combinations of political predispositions and candidate statements are necessary to change the viewers’ debate winner perception. In doing so, third, we expand the toolbox of empirical debate research with our analysis based on machine learning algorithms. Our findings indicate that pre-debate chancellor preference and candidate images play a crucial role in determining post-debate perception change, while party identification is less important in predicting changes. We can also directly identify several speech moments in the debate that shifted viewer perception, a novel approach to evaluating political debate performance.

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All I do is win, no matter what? What matters in gaining electoral support from televised debates

Cited by 2 publications

References 29 publications

The Grand Finale

The Grand Finale

How to convince in a televised debate: the application of machine learning to analyze why viewers changed their winner perception during the 2021 German chancellor discussion

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