All Brexiteers now? Brexit, the Conservatives and party change

Abstract

The 2016 referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU) brought about significant change in the policy and strategy of the Conservative Party. Despite David Cameron's resignation, these dramatic shifts have not been matched by changes in personnel or dominant faction as MPs who voted Remain continue to outnumber those who voted Leave at the top echelons of the party. 140 Conservative MPs, many with a record of rebellion on EU issues, voted Leave, but among Remain-voting MPs were many 'reluctant Remainers'. All except Ken Clarke subsequently voted for the Bill triggering Article 50 but, in a party long divided over the EU issue, the institutional support mechanisms underpinning policy change are fragile. Conservative divisions have also changed as soft and hard Brexiteers disagree over the withdrawal process and the UK's future relationship with the EU. With the Conservatives now a minority government, parliament offers various ways in which MPs can register dissent and influence policy, from amending core Brexit legislation to supporting critical Select Committee reports.

The 2016 EU Referendum: Explaining Support for Brexit Among Would-Be British MPs

“…While the literature of voters is now well-established, the study of support for Brexit among political elites remains in its infancy. There is an emerging literature focusing on which politicians cast their ballot for Leave in 2016 (Heppell et al, 2017b; Lynch and Whitaker, 2018; Moore, 2018; Trumm, 2020), but to date, the focus of these studies has largely been limited to members of the parliamentary Conservative Party and candidates at the 2016 devolved election in Wales.…”

From Rebellion to Extinction: Where have all the Tory Remainer MPs Gone?

“…Although the eurosceptic radicalisation of the party began earlier, the 2016 EU referendum, which can already be seen as a seismic shift in British politics, has radically transformed the Conservative Party, with Tories becoming 'all Brexiteers now'. 3 Not only has it clearly polarised British parties, which seem to have completely aligned on Brexit between 2016 and the 2019 general election, but the ideological composition of the party came to be seen, before the election, as overwhelmingly dominated by a sense of urgency to leave the EU-with or without a deal. The party has thus engaged in a process of never-ending eurosceptic radicalisation and escalated towards a hard Brexit position-one that British people had not necessarily voted for in 2016.…”

Brexit and the 2019 EP Election in the UK

“…The following two years proved difficult for the government, which suffered from substantive internal division on the question of Brexit and its negotiation strategy. The leadership's position on Brexit lacked strong institutional underpinnings within the party (Lynch and Whitaker, 2018). Whereas some Remain MPs exerted pressure on the government to pursue a softer Brexit strategy, Leave MPs campaigned for a hard Brexit.…”