Algorithms at War: The Promise, Peril, and Limits of Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

How might rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies affect the construction and application of military power? Despite the emerging importance of AI systems in defense modernization initiatives, there has been little empirical or theoretical study from the perspective of the international relations (IR) and security studies fields. This article addresses this shortcoming by describing AI developments and assessing the manner in which AI is likely to affect military organizations. We focus specifically on military power, as new methods and modes thereof will alter the constitution of security relationships around the world and affect the ability of states to bargain, signal, and influence in the twenty-first century. We argue that, though rapid adoption of AI technologies stands to transform states’ ways of war on a number of fronts, an AI revolution brings with it new forms of risk that must be reconciled with the widespread integration of algorithmic systems across military functions. Where new technology promises a transformation of the character of military power in some veins, it also complicates the cognitive aspects of decision-making and bureaucratic interactions in security institutions. The speed with which complex integrated AI systems enable entirely new modes of war also stands to detach human agency in a potentially destabilizing fashion from the conduct of warfare on several fronts. Preventing the negative externalities of these “ghosts in the machine” will involve significant efforts to educate decision makers, promote accountability, and restrain irresponsible employment of AI.

Artificial Intelligence, Forward‐Looking Governance and the Future of Security

“…The majority of research in the field reflects realist IR and traditional strategic studies perspectives, as most contributions focus on the impact of AI on military capabilities and the global balance of power (e.g. Jensen et al 2019; Horowitz 2019; Haas and Fischer 2017; Ayoub and Payne 2015). Such realist approaches tend to conceptualize AI technologies as capability enhancing, or at least as capability altering tools and as potential game changers for states’ military might.…”

Knowledge in the grey zone: AI and cybersecurity

“…In the context of lethal autonomous weapons systems and the use of AI in war, the question has become: should humans be in, on or out of this loop? (Jensen et al 2019;Scharre 2018) In cybersecurity, as in war, analysts and operators are enmeshed in hybrid human-machine assemblages that generate knowledge of particular utility in specific decision-making circumstances. The production of cyber threat intelligence is referred to in terms of hybrid configurations of people, data, machines and organisations, tasked with meeting specific operational and strategic demands (Jasper 2017).…”

On the Problem of Social Innovation in the Lithuanian Military

“…Through interactive exercises and simulations, military personnel can develop the capacity to navigate complex social contexts, enhancing their ability to communicate effectively with diverse stakeholders (Garcia Zea et al, 2023). The anticipated outcomes of the integration of social innovation extend improved communication efficacy and strengthened team cohesion, and ultimately enhance the success rates of military action (Jensen et al, 2020;Rusu, 2023).…”