Algeria versus the Arab Spring

Abstract

What accounts for continuing authoritarian success in the Arab world today? In light of the "Arab Spring," explanations of "authoritarian resilience" in the region clearly need to be revised. Yet it is important to remember that many of these authoritarian regimes have weathered the storm well. As Sean Yom and Gregory Gause recently noted in these pages, most of the region's monarchies have so far remained unbowed by the winds of revolutionary change. 1 It is much harder-though not impossible-to identify Arab republics that have not been deeply and adversely affected by the wave of uprisings. In the Republic of Algeria, not only did the regime survive this tumultuous period, but it hardly deviated from its habitual methods of authoritarian governance. Is Algeria the exception that confirms the rule? Or does it underscore the complexity of the mechanisms underpinning authoritarianism in the region, and the limitations of revolutionary models of regime change of the Arab Spring? In my view, Algeria illustrates a type of authoritarian resistance to popular challenges that is based on pseudodemocratization, redistributive patronage, and an effective use of the security apparatus. It would be misguided to evaluate the prospects for political change in the Middle East simply in light of the recent uprisings. The patterns of democratic revolutions and authoritarian resilience observed during the Arab Spring indicate that specific combinations of factors can be conducive to regime failure, but they hardly provide a comprehensive map of all the causes that can lead to regime change in the region. For one thing, authoritarian elites do learn from their mistakes and those of others; in that respect, the Algerian regime is no exception. 2 Furthermore, and somewhat counterintuitively, just because a particular regime

After the Arab Uprisings: resilience or transformation?

“…As the protests continued, comparison with the 1988 riots started to loom over the new events. This time, though, participation of the Islamists groups and leaders was only marginal, and the response of the security forces was not brutal as in 1988 -thus, state repression itself did not become the cause of further protests (Volpi 2013). Most importantly, shortly after the riots began, the government swiftly intervened to lower the cost of staples, and within a few days most of the protests were considerably reduced.…”

Algeria's Roles in the OAU/African Union: From National Liberation Promoter to Leader in the Global War on Terrorism

“…Since the late 1990s, the OAU/AU has allowed Algeria to perform its role as antiterrorist leader, a role that enabled the country regain its lost standing in world affairs and to secure support from the major powers, especially the United States, which led the 'Global War on Terror', so much so that an observer suggested that Algeria has integrated into the (US) Empire and that the Algerian rulers have become aware that their tenure in power depends on Western, mainly US, support (Ravenel, 2003;Keenan, 2004). The authoritarian regime has so far dodged the Arab uprisings (Volpi, 2013) and Algerian policy makers know that in case of upheaval, they can also count on the backing of their AU peers, many of whose authoritarian members, dubbed the 'Dictators' Club', have remained loyal to Algeria. Even though under Bouteflika's presidency Algeria's bilateral relations have subsided (he never visited a sub-Saharan country outside an OAU/AU Summit) due to the president's turn toward the West, Algeria's interests in and contribution to the AU have not changed dramatically.…”

Repression as a Double‐edged Sword: Resilient Monarchs, Repression and Revolution in the Arab World

“…In that respect, the repressive apparatus of January 2011 was far superior to that of October 1988, when the army killed more than five‐hundred demonstrators in just over ten days. During the week of rioting in January 2011, only three demonstrators died’ (Volpi : 111). Egypt under Sadat shows the backlashing effect of the absence of repression.…”