Ajuste de distribuições de probabilidade à precipitação mensal no estado de Pernambuco – Brasil

Ximenes, Patricia de Souza Medeiros Pina; Silva, Antônio Samuel Alves da; Ashkar, Fahim; Stošić, Tatijana

doi:10.33448/rsd-v9i11.9894

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…For the calculation of the SPI, first, it is necessary to adjust the probability density function (pdf) to the dataset precipitation. Among several distributions proposed in the literature [57,58], the gamma distribution was adopted in this work because it is the most widely used to fit precipitation time series [39,59,60]. The gamma pdf is given by…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

da Silva Júnior,

da Silva Araújo,

Stosic

et al. 2024

Water

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Drought is the most complex natural hazard that can occur over large spatial scales and during long time periods. It affects more people than any other natural hazard, particularly in areas with a dry climate, such as the semiarid region of the Brazilian Northeast (NEB), which is the world’s most populated dry area. In this work, we analyzed trends and the spatial distribution of drought characteristics (frequency, affected area, and intensity) based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on annual (SPI-12) and seasonal (SPI-3) scales. The study used monthly precipitation data recorded between 1962 and 2012 at 133 meteorological stations in Pernambuco State, Brazil, which is located in the eastern part of the NEB and has more than 80% of its territory characterized by a semiarid climate. The regions of Sertão, Agreste, and Zona da Mata of Pernambuco were considered for comparison. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were used to detect the trend and determine its magnitude, respectively. The results indicated that annual droughts in the state of Pernambuco became more frequent from the 1990s onwards, with summer having the greatest spatial coverage, followed by winter, autumn, and spring. Sertão presented a greater number of stations with a significant positive trend in drought frequency. Regarding the drought-affected area, global events occurred in a greater number of years on an annual scale and during the summer. Trend analysis pointed to an increase in areas with drought events on both scales. As for the drought intensity, the entire state of Pernambuco experienced drought events with high intensity during the autumn. The relationship between drought characteristics indicated an increase in the affected area as the result of an increase in drought intensity.

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Section: Standardized Precipitation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

da Silva Júnior,

da Silva Araújo,

Stosic

et al. 2024

Water

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“…Existem diversos modelos que podem ser usados para determinar a frequência hidrológica das cheias, precipitações máximas e intensidade-duração-frequência de um evento. Em geral, os modelos probabilísticos dependem do uso de dados existentes para fazer previsões cenário futuro (Affonso et al, 2020;Filho et al, 2020;Ximenes et al, 2020).…”

Section: Análise Da Frequência De Cheiasunclassified

Estudo de vazões máximas de projeto usando uma distribuição de Gumbel

Nobre

Pereira

Campos

2021

RSD

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O cálculo de cheias máximas de projeto é fundamental para o projeto e desenvolvimento de construções hidráulicas. A previsão de enchentes, por exemplo, pode ser estimada, aplicando o cálculo de uma enchente de projeto por extrapolação dos dados históricos para condições extremas. Assim, para evitar riscos de colapso em construções hidráulicas, é fundamental o uso de distribuições estatísticas especializadas para realizar cálculos de vazões de projeto de vertedouros. A distribuição de Gumbel é uma das funções de distribuição de probabilidade mais amplamente utilizadas para valores extremos em estudos hidrológicos, nos quais os parâmetros considerados na análise são a vazão e período de retorno. Neste trabalho de pesquisa, uma distribuição de Gumbel foi utilizada para analisar os dados das vazões máximas de uma série histórica da estação Tabajara, do rio Ji-Paraná, localizado no município de Machadinho d’Oeste – RO. Os dados estudados foram coletados entre os anos de 1978 e 2015.

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Evaluation of probability distributions in the analysis of minimum temperature series in Manaus – AM

Borges

Silva

Melo

et al. 2021

RSD

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The relevance in studying climatological phenomena is based on the influence that variables of this nature exert on the world. Among the most observed variables, temperature stands out, whose effect of its variation may cause significant impacts, such as the proliferation of biological species, agricultural production, population health, etc. Probability distributions have been studied to verify the best fit to describe and/or predict the behavior of climate variables and, in this context, the present study evaluated, among six probability distributions, the best fit to describe a historical temperature series. minimum monthly mean. The series used in this study encompass a period of 38 years (1980 to 2018) separated by month from the weather station of the Manaus - AM station (OMM: 82331) obtained from INMET, totaling 459 observations. Difference-Sign and Turning Point tests were used to verify data independence and the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters. Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, Cramér-von Mises, Akaike Information Criterion and quantile-quantile plots were used to select the best fit distribution. Log-Normal, Gama, Weibull, Gumbel type II, Benini and Rice distributions were evaluated, with the best performing Rice, Log-Normal and Gumbel II distributions being highlighted.

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Ajuste de distribuições de probabilidade à precipitação mensal no estado de Pernambuco – Brasil

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

Space-Time Variability of Drought Characteristics in Pernambuco, Brazil

Estudo de vazões máximas de projeto usando uma distribuição de Gumbel

Evaluation of probability distributions in the analysis of minimum temperature series in Manaus – AM

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