Airline fleet replacement funded by a carbon tax: An integrated assessment

Dray, Lynnette; Evans, Antony; Reynolds, Tom; Schäfer, Andreas; Vera-Morales, María; Bosbach, Wolfram A.

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.02.021

Cited by 29 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…This model will build on the existing AIM model (e.g. Reynolds et al 2007;Dray et al 2014), introducing airline competition and network change (e.g. Evans & Schäfer, 2011) amongst other new features.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model

et al. 2019

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Policies aimed at influencing air transportation must operate in a complex, interacting global system of passengers, airlines, airports and other stakeholders. Tools which are capable of assessing policy outcomes in this situation are vital. Given the high uncertainty about future demand, costs and technology characteristics on policy-relevant timescales, such tools also need to allow the evaluation of outcomes from a wide range of plausible futures. This paper presents the validation study and initial baseline results from a comprehensive, open source update of the global AIM aviation systems model. We show that running the model from 2005 to 2015 using 2005 base year data reproduces well the observed demand levels and patterns of growth. Running from a 2015 base year, we project global demand in 2050 of between 13,800 billion and 46,000 billion revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), respectively 2.2 and 7.4 times year 2015 values, depending primarily on the future scenario for population, income and oil price assumed. Absent any radical change in aircraft technology, this would lead to global direct CO2 emissions from aviation of between 876 and 2,500 Mt, or 1.5 to 4.4 times the year-2015 level. This wide level of baseline variation may present a challenge for long-term aviation policy and its adaptability to different futures.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model

et al. 2019

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“…Several detailed Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) studies have been published recently looking at biojet technology pathway resource requirements and sustainability considerations such as net carbon footprints (see, for example, Agusdinata et al 2011 andHan et al 2013). The Aviation Integrated Model (AIM), which links several components of the aviation sector with technological and structural detail, has considered biojet fuels as an important component of potential emissions reductions in aviation (Dray et al 2014).…”

Section: Biojet Fuelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biojet fuels and emissions mitigation in aviation: An integrated assessment modeling analysis

Wise

Muratori

Kyle

2017

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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Although the aviation sector is a relatively small contributor to total greenhouse gas emissions, it is a fast-growing, fossil fuel-intensive transportation mode. Because aviation is a mode for which liquid fuels currently have no practical substitute, biofuels are gaining attention as a promising cleaner alternative. In this paper, we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to develop scenarios that explore the potential impact of biojet fuels for use in aviation in the context of broader climate change mitigation. We show that a carbon price would have a significant impact on the aviation sector. In the absence of alternatives to jet fuel from petroleum, mitigation potential is limited and would be at the expense of aviation service demand growth. However, mitigation efforts through the increased use of biojet fuels show potential to reduce the carbon intensity of aviation, without a significant impact on bioenergy use in the rest of the energy system for carbon mitigation. The potential of biofuel to decarbonize air transport is significantly enhanced when carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is used in the conversion process to produce jet fuels from biomass feedstock.

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“…The Aviation Integrated Modelling (AIM) 10,11 project was initiated by the University of Cambridge, UK. The aim of this project is to develop a tool to assess different current and future policies in aviation 12 .…”

Section: B Academic Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A concept of forecasting origin-destination air passenger demand between global city pairs using future socio-economic scenarios

Terekhov

Ghosh

Gollnick

2015

53rd AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting

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This study introduces a concept of a new method of forecasting air passenger flows on a global level using socio-economic scenarios. The method has two steps: forecasting the topology of origin-destination demand network and predicting the number of passengers on existing and new connections. Network theory is applied to simulate demand connections between cities utilizing weighted similarity based algorithms. The number of passengers on a connection is defined using quantitative analogies. Preliminary calculations show promising results. This concept of the global passenger demand prediction will be applied in a modular environment modeling the future air transport system.

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Airline fleet replacement funded by a carbon tax: An integrated assessment

Cited by 29 publications

References 8 publications

AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model

AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model

Biojet fuels and emissions mitigation in aviation: An integrated assessment modeling analysis

A concept of forecasting origin-destination air passenger demand between global city pairs using future socio-economic scenarios

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