AIRCC-Clim: A user-friendly tool for generating regional probabilistic climate change scenarios and risk measures

Estrada, Francisco; Calderón-Bustamante, Óscar; Botzen, Wouter; Velasco, Julián A.; Tol, Richard S.J.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105528

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 53 publications

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“…The potential distribution obtained for each of the six Peromyscus mexicanus lineages is a geographic representation of their environmental niche. We acknowledge that future models are an approximation based on which potential distribution change scenarios can be described, but which are not explanations nor accurate predictions; also, we acknowledge that many future modeling algorithms have been proposed [74,75]. We chose to work with two general scenarios that would allow us to fulfill our objective of analyzing general potential range size change, using a broad-spectrum considering medium-high and lowmedium emissions (SREASA2 and SRESB1, respectively).…”

Section: Overall Distribution Range Changes Associated With Future Cl...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Late Pleistocene Altitudinal Segregation and Demography Define Future Climate Change Distribution of the Peromyscus mexicanus Species Group: Conservation Implications

Pérez-Consuegra,

Sánchez-Tovar,

Rodríguez-Tapia

et al. 2023

Animals

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Mountains harbor a significant number of the World’s biodiversity, both on tropical and temperate regions. Notably, one crucial gap in conservation is the consideration of historical and contemporary patterns influencing differential distribution in small mammal mountain species and how climate change will affect their distribution and survival. The mice Peromyscus mexicanus species group is distributed across mountains in Guatemala-Chiapas and Central America, which experienced significant effects of glacial and interglacial cycles. We determined phylogeographic and demographic patterns of lowlands and highlands mountain lineages, revealing that the radiation of modern P. mexicanus lineages occurred during the Pleistocene (ca. 2.6 mya) along Nuclear Central America. In concert with climatic cycles and the distribution of habitats, lowland and highland lineages showed recent population size increase and decrease, respectively. We also estimated the current and future distribution ranges for six lineages, finding marked area size increase for two lineages for which vegetation type and distribution would facilitate migrating towards higher elevations. Contrastingly, three lineages showed range size decrease; their ecological requirements make them highly susceptible to future habitat loss. Our findings are clear evidence of the negative impacts of future climate change, while our ability to manage and conserve these vulnerable ecosystems and mountain species is contingent on our understanding of the implications of climate change on the distribution, ecology, and genetics of wildlife populations.

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Section: Overall Distribution Range Changes Associated With Future Cl...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Late Pleistocene Altitudinal Segregation and Demography Define Future Climate Change Distribution of the Peromyscus mexicanus Species Group: Conservation Implications

Pérez-Consuegra,

Sánchez-Tovar,

Rodríguez-Tapia

et al. 2023

Animals

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

AIRCC-Clim: A user-friendly tool for generating regional probabilistic climate change scenarios and risk measures

Cited by 1 publication

References 53 publications

Late Pleistocene Altitudinal Segregation and Demography Define Future Climate Change Distribution of the Peromyscus mexicanus Species Group: Conservation Implications

Late Pleistocene Altitudinal Segregation and Demography Define Future Climate Change Distribution of the Peromyscus mexicanus Species Group: Conservation Implications

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