Airblast variability and fatality risks from a VBIED in a complex urban environment

Marks, Nicholas A; Stewart, Mark G.; Netherton, Michael D.; Stirling, Chris G.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2021.107459

Cited by 22 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…However, gauges 1 and 5 highlight how structures 4 and 5 may result in an unacceptable risk of increased overpressure either side of the containment model. Containment 3 appears to present the best compromise between peak values and material use, however no human vulnerability thresholds or fatality assessments, such as the ones featured in studies by Alterman et al (2019) and Marks et al (2021), have been consulted or conducted in making this judgement. Including such analyses would be required in the next phase of this analysis so that the data from all 20 models is utilised to make more informed risk based decisions or in designing a new alternative structural arrangement that benefits from these observations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is firstly because the results obtained from the analysis are not used in forming the conclusions of this article, with the focus instead being placed on the ability of the proposed method to save computation time. It is however important for the obtained results to be representative of the explosive scenario and since Viper::Blast is a tool founded upon established work published by Rose (2001) and Wada and Liou (1997), it is chosen approach for various studies including an air blast variability analysis conducted by Marks et al (2021) and the evaluation of multiple simultaneously detonated charges by Zaghloul et al (2021). This gives confidence that the observed parameters will be characteristic of an explosive test and therefore with progressive simulation time steps that represent typical blast analyses.…”

Section: Example Application In 3dmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A branching algorithm to reduce computational time of batch models: Application for blast analyses

Dennis

Smyl

Stirling

et al. 2022

International Journal of Protective Structures

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Numerical analysis is increasingly used for batch modelling runs, with each individual model possessing a unique combination of input parameters sampled from a range of potential values. Whilst such an approach can help to develop a comprehensive understanding of the inherent unpredictability and variability of explosive events, or populate training/validation data sets for machine learning approaches, the associated computational expense is relatively high. Furthermore, any given model may share a number of common solution steps with other models in the batch, and simulating all models from birth to termination may result in large amounts of repetition. This paper presents a new branching algorithm that ensures calculation steps are only computed once by identifying when the parameter fields of each model in the batch becomes unique. This enables informed data mapping to take place, leading to a reduction in the required computation time. The branching algorithm is explained using a conceptual walk-through for a batch of 9 models, featuring a blast load acting on a structural panel in 2D. By eliminating repeat steps, approximately 50% of the run time can be saved. This is followed by the development and use of the algorithm in 3D for a practical application involving 20 complex containment structure models. In this instance, a ∼20% reduction in computational costs is achieved.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Example Application In 3dmentioning

confidence: 99%

A branching algorithm to reduce computational time of batch models: Application for blast analyses

Dennis

Smyl

Stirling

et al. 2022

International Journal of Protective Structures

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“…In a similar study, Christensen and Hjort [96] used numerical analysis and simple structural response models to back-calculate the yield of the 2011 Oslo bombings. Marks et al [97] conducted a probabilistic assessment of blast loading to determine fatality risks due to the pressure and impulse from a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonated at a T-junction in an urban streetscape, an extension of the work to determine fatality risks due to the detonation of an improvised explosive device inside a typical ground floor lobby of a large commercial or government building [98].…”

Section: General Computational Fluid Dynamics Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Blast Loading in the Urban Environment

et al. 2023

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Urban blasts have become a significant concern in recent years. Whilst free-field blasts are well understood, the introduction of an urban setting (or any complex geometry) gives rise to multiple blast wave interactions and unique flow complexities, significantly increasing the difficulty of loading predictions. This review identifies commonly agreed-upon concepts or behaviours that are utilised to describe urban shock wave propagation, such as channelling and shielding, in conjunction with exploring urban characterisation metrics that aim to predict the effects on global blast loading for an urban blast. Likewise, discrepancies and contradictions are highlighted to promote key areas that require further work and clarification. Multiple numerical modelling programmes are acknowledged to showcase their ability to act as a means of validation and a preliminary testing tool. The findings contained within this review aim to inform future research decisions and topics better.

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“…Added to this was airblast reliability and development of RBDFs (e.g. Stewart et al, 2006, 2020; Netherton and Stewart, 2010; Stewart, 2018; 2021a; 2021b), airblast variability in complex urban spaces (Alterman et al, 2019; Marks et al, 2021), damage risks and structural reliability of RC and Ultra High Performance Concrete columns and walls, as well as glazing (e.g. Netherton and Stewart, 2009; Shi and Stewart, 2015a, 2015b; Stewart 2019, 2021b; Stewart and Li, 2021), fragmentation hazards (e.g.…”

Section: Stochastic Approaches To Blast-resistant Design and Damage A...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability-based design and robustness for blast-resistant design of RC buildings

Stewart

2022

Advances in Structural Engineering

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Explosive blasts from accidental or malevolent sources constitute an extreme event resulting in abnormal loads on buildings and other structures. A reinforced concrete (RC) multistorey building is assumed to be attacked by a terrorist vehicle-borne improvised device. Structural reliabilities are calculated for each RC column in the multistorey building exposed directly to the blast event. The probability of progressive collapse for the building is then estimated using system reliability analysis comprising of ground floor columns exposed to the explosive blast. The RC columns are designed according to United States blast-resistant design standard based on (i) threat dependent and (ii) alternate path design methods. The effects of threat dependent and alternate path design methods on column sizing, column reliability, and building collapse probability are investigated by conservatively assuming that collapse occurs if one or more columns fail. The robustness is also dependent on the location of the explosive. It was also found that a threat-dependent design appears to be more effective than the alternate path method in reducing building collapse risks.

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Airblast variability and fatality risks from a VBIED in a complex urban environment

Cited by 22 publications

References 32 publications

A branching algorithm to reduce computational time of batch models: Application for blast analyses

A branching algorithm to reduce computational time of batch models: Application for blast analyses

A Review of Blast Loading in the Urban Environment

Reliability-based design and robustness for blast-resistant design of RC buildings

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