Air Quality Modeling and Decisions for Ozone Reduction Strategies

Roth, Philip M.; Reynolds, Steven D.; Tesche, T.W.

doi:10.1080/10473289.2005.10464751

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 23 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…Deviations from EPA-recommended modeled attainment test Roth et al (2005) extensively audited the overall modeling methodologies of SIPs for the earlier 1-hr ozone standard. Here, we instead focus on the extent to which SIP modeling approaches deviated from the standard EPA-recommended modeled attainment test (EPA, 2007b) in order to demonstrate attainment by the targeted date.…”

Section: State and Federal Measures In Sipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Roth et al (2005) audited the modeling approaches of ozone SIPs and other regulatory modeling efforts in North America from the early 1990s, and found that the majority of cases lacked sufficient performance evaluation and corroborating analyses. Fine and Owen (2005) reviewed the attainment planning process in the San Joaquin Valley and highlighted specific shortcomings regarding modeling and public participation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Efficacy of recent state implementation plans for 8-hour ozone

Pegues

Cohan

Digar

et al. 2011

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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The development of state implementation plans (SIPs) for attainment of criteria pollutant standards is an integral component of air quality management in the United States. However, the content and efficacy of SIPs have rarely been examined systematically. Here, 20 SIPs developed in response to the 1997 8-hr ozone standard are reviewed as case studies of attainment efforts at the state level.Comparison of observed and model predicted ozone concentrations shows the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended modeled attainment test to be a somewhat conservative predictor of attainment. Among 12 SIPs for regions that sought attainment by 2009, the test correctly predicted attainment and nonattainment in four and five regions, respectively; in the other three regions, attainment was observed despite predictions of nonattainment. However, weight-of-evidence determinations and deviations from the recommended modeled attainment test methodology led five of these SIPs to predict attainment that was not in fact observed by 2009; three of those regions achieved attainment in 2010. Ozone and NO 2 concentrations declined across much of the United States during the period covered by the SIPs, with rates of improvement strongly correlated with the initial pollution levels and hence greatest in nonattainment regions. However, at monitors with mid-range levels of ozone initially, rates of reduction were largely independent of the initial attainment status of the region. This is consistent with the fact that apart from California, the majority of ozone precursor reductions documented by SIPs resulted from federal measures rather than from state or local controls specific to the nonattainment regions.Implications: At a time of sharp debate in the United States about strengthening ambient ozone standards, this study highlights strengths and weaknesses of recent state implementation plans. Substantial improvements in air quality have been observed, bringing the majority of regions into attainment of the 1997 ozone standards. The extent to which state-level measures contributed to those improvements is unclear. The standard modeled attainment tests provided somewhat conservative predictions of future attainment, but alternate approaches predicted attainment that was not in fact observed. Greater caution may be needed in weight-of-evidence analyses to avoid overly optimistic predictions of future attainment.

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Section: State and Federal Measures In Sipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy of recent state implementation plans for 8-hour ozone

Pegues

Cohan

Digar

et al. 2011

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association

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“…For example, scenarios may represent emission levels under control strategies [12], or under projected climate change [13,14]. Other studies consider hypothetical percentage changes in emissions by species, source sector, or source region [15].…”

Section: Brute-force Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Air Quality Response Modeling for Decision Support

Cohan

Napelenok

2011

Atmosphere

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Air quality management relies on photochemical models to predict the responses of pollutant concentrations to changes in emissions. Such modeling is especially important for secondary pollutants such as ozone and fine particulate matter which vary nonlinearly with changes in emissions. Numerous techniques for probing pollutant-emission relationships within photochemical models have been developed and deployed for a variety of decision support applications. However, atmospheric response modeling remains complicated by the challenge of validating sensitivity results against observable data. This manuscript reviews the state of the science of atmospheric response modeling as well as efforts to characterize the accuracy and uncertainty of sensitivity results.

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“…"Attainment demonstrations" conducted to attain a previous air quality standard are rarely re-evaluated to determine why attainment was not achieved on the specified schedule. 40,41 The 40th annual A&WMA Critical Review 42,43 provides a conceptual framework for multipollutant air quality management and assessment of accountability. The review summarizes and elaborates on an extensive NARSTO 44 integrated assessment 45 of the same topic.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%