The HIV/AIDS disease burden in Kenyatta National Hospital medical wards has risen inexorably over the last decade. Most recently, the number of HIV-uninfected patients has also risen, leading to bed occupancy figures of 190%. Despite overcrowding and irrespective of HIV status, in-patient mortality has fallen. Time trends suggest fewer clinical AIDS patients are presenting for hospital care, implying a rising community burden of chronic HIV/AIDS disease. Although widely predicted, it is not inevitable that medical services in urban African hospitals dealing with large volumes of HIV/AIDS disease, will collapse or become overwhelmed with chronic, end-stage disease and death.