Aid in Conflict: Determinants of International Aid Allocation to Ukraine During the 2022 Russian Invasion

Abstract

Governments have responded to the 2022 Russian invasion by committing substantial aid to Ukraine. This paper investigates this aid on a cross-national basis utilizing differences in economic, political, and geographic characteristics of donor countries. It advances the comprehension of aid allocation to Ukraine and argues that donors’ interests heavily influence bilateral aid to Ukraine. Empirically, a two-stage approach serves to identify the main determinants of aid allocation, analyzing both the initial decision to donate and the level of aid generosity. The regression analyses show that wealthier, more populous, more democratic countries as well as those who trade with Russia are more likely to support Ukraine while the impact of these factors is more nuanced when determining aid generosity. Ceteris paribus, EU and NATO members are more likely to donate and more generous in their aid efforts. The results also shed light on the complex role of former Soviet republics.