Agricultural Sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Climate Change—Challenges and Opportunities

Abstract

Abstract:Half of Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BH) population lives in rural areas. Agricultural production is a backbone of the rural economy and generates significant economic value for the country. BH is highly vulnerable to climate change, which poses a significant development challenge given the climate-sensitivity of the agricultural sector, the share of agriculture in the total economy, the number of people employed in the sector, and the closely related socio-economic issues of food security. BH has experienced serious incidences of extreme weather events over the past two decades, causing severe economic losses. Based on available data and currently available climate projections, exposure to threats from climate change will continue to increase. The review paper presents the current state of the BH agricultural sector and the impact of potential climate change on agricultural systems. It proposes policy options to optimize opportunities and mitigate consequences of possible climate change in the agricultural sector. Development of policy and research capacity should include harmonisation and centralisation of domestic agricultural policies, carrying out a vulnerability assessment and strengthening the public and private extension systems. Further technological development should include improvements in weather and climate information systems, crop development, irrigation and water management.

Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina

“…BH is a predominantly rural country. It is estimated that nearly two thirds of the population live in rural areas [2]. The rural population in these regions is vulnerable to climate change due to heavy dependence on climate sensitive livelihood options (agriculture in particular) and limited adaptive capacity to cope with changes, similar to what is described in the case of the developing countries [3,4].…”

“…At the same time, it has been experiencing serious incidences of extreme weather events in the past two decades, causing severe economic consequences. Six extreme drought periods and three excessive floods in BH have been registered in the past 15 years, which have affected hundreds of thousands of people and resulted in enormous economic damage in agriculture and other sectors [2].…”

“…On the other hand, municipalities with low adaptive capacity were found to have a high dependency ratio, underdeveloped infrastructure, public and social services, and high unemployment rates. A significant percentage of the population in these municipalities are smallholder farmers engaged in extensive, often subsistence, agriculture [2]. The example from Table 2 is used to gain a more detailed insight into the main determinants of vulnerability in the nine most vulnerable municipalities in BH.…”

“…Based on available data and current, available climate projections, exposure to threats from climate change will continue to increase [1,2]. BH is a predominantly rural country.…”

Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events in Europe during summer (1950–2013)

“…For example the 2010 event at Moscow was accompanied by extreme heat and wildfires that resulted in 50 000 excess deaths (Shaposhnikov et al 2014), while the 1972 event was termed one of the worst modern droughts at the time (Federov 1973, Buchinsky 1976, Schubert et al 2014. At Belgrade, the events of 1990 and 2012 brought respective estimated agricultural losses of USD 500 million (Sepulcre-Canto et al 2012) and USD 2 billion (Zurovec et al 2015). While at Madrid, the 1994 event formed part of Spain's worst 20th century drought event from 1991 to 1995 which peaked during the 1994 event according to EDC (2013c).…”