Agricultural Payments and Land Concentration: A Semiparametric Spatial Regression Analysis

Abstract

Over the last twenty years, both crop production and agricultural payments have shifted toward larger operations. This study examines whether payments from federal farm programs contributed to increased concentration of cropland and farmland. Using zip code—level data constructed from the microfiles of the 1987–2002 agriculture censuses we examine the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in land concentration. A semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) controls for location and historical concentration, sales per acre, and ratio of cropland area to zip code area. Findings indicate, both with and without nonparametric controls, government payments are strongly associated with subsequent concentration growth. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States

“…At the same time, yield losses might induce farmers to purchase less outside goods and result in fewer investments. Roberts & Key (2008) have also shown that larger government payments result in consolidation in the farm sector, thereby increasing average farm size. An increase in farm size might lead to efficiency gains and hence reduce the demand for services and goods outside the agricultural sector.…”

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“…Zepeda, 1995;Pietola et al, 2003;Yee and Ahearn, 2005;Breustedt and Glauben, 2007;Key and Roberts, 2007;Möllers and Fritzsch, 2010) and were the focus of other studies (e.g. Ahearn et al, 2005;Roberts and Key, 2008;Piet et al, 2012). Zepeda (1995), Pietola et al (2003) and Glauben et al (2006) found no significant impact of agricultural programmes on farm exits.…”

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