Agricultural drought impacts on crops sector and adaptation options in Mali: a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium analysis

Abstract

In Mali's current context where the crops sector is particularly exposed and vulnerable to agricultural drought, this study assesses the economy-wide impacts of such events and the potential effectiveness of some adaptation strategies. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we conduct counterfactual simulations of various scenarios accounting for different levels of intensity and frequency of droughts over a 15-year period. We first show how mild, moderate, and intense droughts currently experienced by the country affect its economic performances and considerably degrade its households' welfare. We also show how these negative impacts could be aggravated in the future by the likely increased number of intense droughts threatened by global climate change. However, we finally show that there appears to be some room for Mali to manoeuvre in terms of drought-risk management policies, such as fostering the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties, improving drought early warning systems or extending irrigation capacities. 4 mainly in the Southern Sudanic zone and the inlet delta of the river Niger. It is also poorly diversified (see Table 1). Cash-crop cultivates focus on cotton and rice. Subsistence crop production, by far the most important sector, is mainly devoted to millet, rice, sorghum, and maize, which represent nearly 80% of total production and are the basic staples of the Malian diet. But with its rain-fed, small-scale, traditional farming techniques, this subsistence sector provides particularly low yields. The livestock sector, which includes millions of cattle, sheep, and goats, is also of key importance, accounting for 14% of Malian GDP. But most of this sector relies on small-scale, nomadic, pastoral systems with a low average rate of herd utilization and low productivity levels. In this context, living conditions of the fast-growing Malian population are particularly poor. Although Mali experienced an overall drop in poverty in the 2000s, it remains endemic, especially in rural areas, where 77% of the overall population lives and which contribute 90% to the national poverty rate. These rural areas are also affected by chronic malnutrition representing 84% of the overall malnourished population of the country (Eozenou et al., 2013).

A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

“…This paper presents the first comprehensive vulnerability assessment at a large scale by linking a physically-based spatially explicit crop model with indicators of adaptive capacity. The study is unique in the current literature, as most analyses on agriculture vulnerability have been case-specific and done at national or community levels [42][43][44][45]. Other large-scale analyzes lack the integration of a biophysical crop models with socio-economic factors [46,47].…”

Beyond the forecast: knowledge gaps to anticipate disasters in armed conflict areas with high forced displacement

“…In fact, only 13 papers (3.4%) mentioned conflict as part of the socio-political dynamics related to risk creation. Among the papers that mentioned conflict as part of the EWEA research, Montaud acknowledges the difficulty of factoring conflict dynamics into agricultural drought impact analysis in Mali (Montaud 2019). In Afghanistan, Brown et al describe how small declines of precipitation and irrigation water can reduce the coping strategies of poor farmers who are already vulnerable due to conflict (Brown 2009).…”

Country-specific challenges to improving effectiveness, scalability and sustainability of agricultural climate services in Africa

“…In 2012, the National Meteorological Agency (Meteo Mali) was created from a department under the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, to be a financially semi-autonomous parastatal required and empowered to raise its own funds (Freudenberger et al, 2014). However, personnel and observing infrastructure constraints and poor internet connectivity have limited Meteo Mali's ability to provide commercial services at the level needed to mobilize sufficient private sector funding to cover costs, modernize facilities, and rebuild weather stations damaged by civil disturbances in 2012-2013 (Freudenberger et al, 2014;Montaud, 2019;Traoré et al, 2021). Mali's climate service landscape is changing with more private sector involvement (Ouédraogo, M. et al, 2020).…”