Agreement between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome in second-trimester triple-marker screening in Japan

Onda, Takekazu; Tanaka, Tadao; Takeda, Osamu; Kitagawa, Michihiro; Kuwabara, Yoshinori; Yamamoto, Hiroyuki; Iinuma, Kazuso; Shimomura, Katsunori

doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0223(199809)18:9<956::aid-pd370>3.0.co;2-r

Cited by 20 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 5 publications

(8 reference statements)

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“…Despite the inter-and intrapersonal variation of risk estimates reported, it has been shown that the risk estimate is a very good estimate of the actual risk (Wald et al, 1996;Canick and Rish, 1998;Onda et al, 1998). However, the reporting of different risk estimates based on different blood samples taken during the course of the same pregnancy may require an explanation to both the responsible physician and the pregnant woman, and it becomes important to know how a large part of the variation is inevitable as it is due to biological variation within the same woman and how large a part is due to analytical variation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The variation of risk estimates through pregnancy in second trimester maternal serum screening for Down syndrome

et al. 2002

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The variation of risk estimates in second trimester maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome has been shown to be considerable in quality control schemes, i.e. UKNEQAS. We studied the biological variation of risk estimates in 16 women through pregnancy. The maternal serum markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), unconjugated estriol (uE3) and beta-hCG were determined six times during late first to late second trimester, and the associated likelihood ratios for Down syndrome were calculated. The interpersonal variation of markers, as well as that of the likelihood ratio, was much greater than the intrapersonal variation. The average intrapersonal standard deviation (SD) of the triple test log likelihood ratio was 0.2291, corresponding to a central 95-percentile interval 0.36-2.81 of the likelihood ratio. The interpersonal SD of the log likelihood ratio was 0.5482, corresponding to a central 95-percentile interval 0.08-11.87 of the likelihood ratio. The large difference between the intra- and interpersonal variation makes it unlikely that biological variation through pregnancy is a major contributor to the variation of risk estimates obtained several times in the same pregnancy. Rather, improvements in analytical quality and laboratory management must be expected to result in reduced variation and, in consequence, better performance of screening.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The variation of risk estimates through pregnancy in second trimester maternal serum screening for Down syndrome

et al. 2002

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“…As such, the Announcement concern regarding the difficulties that women face in interpreting MSS results is understandable. However, few studies on MSS have been conducted in Japan, with the majority focused on its biochemical features and detection accuracy (Onda et al, 1998;Iinuma et al, 1999;Miyamura et al, 1999;Yoshida et al, 2000;Iinuma & Shimomura, 2001). To date, there have been no studies on how pregnant Japanese women interpret MSS test results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The trick of probabilities: Pregnant women's interpretations of maternal serum screening results in Japan

Yoshino

Takahashi

Kai

2008

Nursing & Health Sciences

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This study aimed to explore how pregnant Japanese women interpret maternal serum screening test results presented as probabilities and to consider the possible methods to improve women's understanding of the results. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 women. Data collection and analysis were performed concurrently, based on the grounded theory approach. We showed that the participants interpreted the test results using various criteria, including information from obstetricians, previously experienced risk probabilities, subjective interpretations, and comparisons with other women. The explanations given by health-care professionals affected the participants' interpretation of the probability of risk and their recognition of false-negative results. Therefore, health-care professionals should explain the meaning of the probability test results and confirm how women interpret them.

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“…This method has been used by other groups to validate risk estimation in their own screening programmes, and one group has used it for estimating the risk of trisomy 18. [2][3][4][5][6][7] In this paper, we present validation plots based on the use of the Integrated test in the screening service offered from the Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine. Our aim was to (i) assess the accuracy of risk estimation using the Integrated test (see box for definition), (ii) compare the validation plots for the Integrated test with screening using other combinations of markers and indicate how these plots can be used to assess screening performance (for example, detection rate for a specified false-positive rate), (iii) assess the robustness of the method to incomplete ascertainment of affected pregnancies, and (iv) consider how such validation plots should be presented and interpreted.…”

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confidence: 99%

Validation plots in antenatal screening for Down's syndrome

et al. 2006

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Agreement between predicted risk and prevalence of Down syndrome in second-trimester triple-marker screening in Japan

Cited by 20 publications

References 5 publications

The variation of risk estimates through pregnancy in second trimester maternal serum screening for Down syndrome

The variation of risk estimates through pregnancy in second trimester maternal serum screening for Down syndrome

The trick of probabilities: Pregnant women's interpretations of maternal serum screening results in Japan

Validation plots in antenatal screening for Down's syndrome

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