9Behavioural assessments of shelter dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) typically comprise 1 0 standardised test batteries conducted at one time point but test batteries have shown 1 1 inconsistent predictive validity. Longitudinal behavioural assessments offer an 1 2 alternative. We modelled longitudinal observational data on shelter dog behaviour using 1 3 the framework of behavioural reaction norms, partitioning variance into personality (i.e.
4inter-individual differences in behaviour), plasticity (i.e. individual differences in 1 5 behavioural change) and predictability (i.e. individual differences in residual intra-1 6 individual variation). We analysed data on 3,263 dogs' interactions (N = 19,281) with 1 7 unfamiliar people during their first month after arrival at the shelter. Accounting for 1 8 personality, plasticity (linear and quadratic trends) and predictability improved the 1 9 predictive accuracy of the analyses compared to models quantifying personality and/or 2 0 plasticity only. While dogs were, on average, highly sociable with unfamiliar people and 2 1 sociability increased over days since arrival, group averages were unrepresentative of all 2 2 dogs and predictions made at the individual level entailed considerable uncertainty.
3Effects of demographic variables (e.g. age) on personality, plasticity and predictability 2 4 were observed. Behavioural repeatability was higher one week after arrival compared to 2 5 arrival day. Our results highlight the value of longitudinal assessments on shelter dogs 2 6 and identify measures that could improve the predictive validity of behavioural 2 7 assessments in shelters.
8 9Keywords-inter-and intra-individual differences, behavioural reaction norms, 3 0 behavioural repeatability, longitudinal behavioural assessment, human-animal 3 1 interactions.