Aggregated Preference Value Analysis of Small Satellite Launch Opportunities

Abstract

Due to the lack of matched dedicated small satellite launch vehicles, launch opportunities as a rideshare or piggyback using a highly reliable launch system has become increasingly important for small satellite developers. The objective of this paper is to provide an aggregated value method as a strategy for developers to evaluate launch opportunities, as well as an approach for the launchers to capture the market dynamics. Based on an up-to-date launch record, a reliable launch database for multi-attribute evaluation is established. Efforts are made to quantify the abstract and concrete attributes of launch systems. An aggregated preference value model is developed, translating different inherited capabilities of launch systems into integrated preference value as a reference for decision-making. The preference values of the launch opportunities of different launch vehicles are explored in a case study by the method proposed, and its feasibility and applicability for small satellite launch system evaluation tasks is validated.

Launch Vehicle Classification for Decision-Making of Small Satellite Launch Options

“…The launch performance of a commercial launch vehicle system is inherently linked to parameters defining its characteristics. 15,16) According to the results of the previous analysis, the basic launch capability for future mainstream small satellite missions is to launch a small satellite into the LEO within an altitude of 1,500 km. 17) Therefore, the transportation ability and the economic cost are measured by LEO payloads and the unit LEO price in this study.…”

“…As for the availability, which presents the compatibility of the launch schedule between launchers and small satellite operators, a detailed analysis of this metric can be found in our previous research. 15,16) It has been shown that the sample mean launch cycle is preferred to indicate the level of availability of launch opportunities.…”

“…A detailed derivation and explanation can be accessed from previous research. 15,16) Therefore, these five variables can be classified Trans. Japan Soc.…”