Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration AbstractTraditional theories of integration such as the optimum currency area approach attribute a prominent role to international labour mobility in coping with relative economic fluctuations between countries. However, recent studies on international migration have overlooked the role of short-run factors in explaining international migration flows. This paper aims to fill that gap. We first derive a model of optimal migration choice based on an extension of the traditional Random Utility Model. Our model predicts that an improvement in the economic activity in a potential destination country relative to any origin country may trigger some additional migration flows on top of the impact exerted by long-run factors such as the wage differential or the bilateral distance. Compiling a dataset with annual gross migration flows between 30 developed origin and destination countries over the 1980-2010 period, we empirically test the magnitude of the effect of short-run factors on bilateral flows. Our econometric results indicate that relative aggregate fluctuations and employment rates affect the intensity of bilateral migration flows. We also provide compelling evidence that the Schengen agreements and the introduction of the euro significantly raised the international mobility of workers between the member countries.JEL-Code: F220, O150.

Graduate migration in Spain: the impact of the Great Recession on a low-mobility country

“…The empirical model is grounded on the random utility maximization theoretical model, based on differences in economic expectations between the origin and destination 5 . With this model, as applied in a vast empirical literature such as Beine et al (2013), Bertoli et al (2013), Izquierdo et al (2014) and Royuela (2015), we seek to explain the log of emigrants as a function of the differential between origin (Spain) and destination (19 OECD countries) in terms of income and/or unemployment. In order to account for additional factors we include in the estimation country and time fixed effects:…”

The European crisis and migration to Germany

“…First, the literature on the determinants of international migration flows 5 See also Bijwaard et al (2014) and Bandiera et al (2013) for evidence on the incidence of temporary migration in different geographical and historical contexts; Artuç and Özden (2014) provide evidence that a substantial share of migrants have been residing outside their country of birth just before moving to the United States, thus suggesting that return is not the only available option at the end of a temporary migration experience. (Beine et al, 2011(Beine et al, , 2013(Beine et al, , 2016Belot and Ederveen, 2012;Belot and Hatton, 2012;Bertoli et al, 2011;Clark et al, 2007;Grogger and Hanson, 2011;Lewer and den Berg, 2008;Mayda, 2010;Pedersen et al, 2008), and more specifically on the papers that have relaxed the distributional assumptions on the underlying RUM model (Bertoli and Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2015;Ortega and Peri, 2013), and those that have analyzed the determinants of migration to Germany, mainly in the context of the Eastern enlargement of the EU (Boeri and Brücker, 2001;Brücker and Siliverstovs, 2006;Fertig, 2001;Flaig, 2001;Sinn et al, 2001;Vogler and Rotte, 2000). Second, the literature on static (de Palma and Kilani, 2007;McFadden, 1974McFadden, , 1978Small and Rosen, 1981) and dynamic discrete choice models (Arcidiacono and Miller, 2011;Artuç et al, 2010;Kennan and Walker, 2011;Pessino, 1991).…”

Türkiye’den OECD Ülkelerine Nitelikli İşgücü Göçü: Bir Panel Veri Analizi

“…Following Beine et al (2013), we model log of emigrants as a function of the differential between origin (Turkey) and destination countries (20 OECD countries) in terms of income, unemployment, demographic profile and urbanization rate. The empirical specification is as follows: Equation (1) allows us to identify the main components of the log of emigrants ( ( )): (i) the log GDP per capita differential PPP-adjusted [ ( ) − ln( ) )], (ii) differential in unemployment rates at destination and Turkey ( − ), (iii) log kilometer distance between Turkey and destination ( − ), (iv) urbanization rate at destination ( ), (v) population between 0-14 age at destination ( 0 − 14 ), (vi) population above 65 years at destination ( 65 ), and finally (vii) year specific effects ( ) and (viii) random effects ( ) to control for destination and year specific characteristics.…”