Agflation and other modifications of inflation (the cases of Georgia and its neighboring countries)

Чарая, Вахтанг; Papava, Vladimer

doi:10.1016/j.aasci.2018.04.007

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…It is difficult to imagine and understand marginal growth in the future, and setting marginal growth stability (Figure 1) as a benchmark for future growth can be very confusing and misleading. Signs of this have already emerged as a result of the shock of the Covid pandemic and the soaring international tensions that have disrupted decades of supply chains and put many developed countries in economic trouble (Lashkhi et al, 2022;Papava, Charaia, 2022;Charaia et al, 2021).…”

Section: International Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modern Analyses of Macroeconomic Indices for Medium and Long Term Plans in Georgia

Giorkhelidze

2024

ESJ

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This paper analyzes the economic growth of Georgia through the lens of two key indicators: income/GDP per worker (representing productivity) and income/GDP per capita (representing prosperity). It emphasizes the importance of using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted data to avoid misleading comparisons between countries with different price levels. The paper highlights three key stylized facts about Georgia's economy: Transformational Shock: Georgia's GDP per capita fell dramatically by 468% in less than ten years due to the collapse of the Soviet economic system. This is a unique event in modern economic history, with no other country experiencing such a sharp decline; Unstable Growth Rates: Unlike the U.S. which shows a relatively stable 2% annual growth rate over 150 years, Georgia's economic growth rates lack a clear trend and fluctuate significantly; Negative Correlation Between Cyclical Unemployment and GDP Gap: The cyclical unemployment rate and the GDP gap in Georgia are inversely correlated. As the unemployment rate falls below the natural rate of unemployment, the GDP gap widens, indicating potential overheating in the economy. The paper argues that existing models of economic growth, often based on developed economies with different macroeconomic realities, may not be suitable for analyzing Georgia's situation. It calls for the development of models that explicitly consider the unique features of Georgia's economy, including the transformational shock, unstable growth rates, and the relationship between unemployment and GDP. Overall, the paper raises important questions about the nature of economic growth in Georgia and the need for tailored models to understand its specific dynamics.

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Section: International Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modern Analyses of Macroeconomic Indices for Medium and Long Term Plans in Georgia

Giorkhelidze

2024

ESJ

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“…Th is study investigated the role of oil price shocks in infl ation persistence for a group of industrialized countries. It found that oil price shocks have a substantial impact on infl ation persistence, with the eff ect varying across countries, Th e study by Mishkin & Schmidt-Hebbel [38] examined the impact of the monetary policy framework on infl ation persistence and showed that mediumterm infl ation targeting reduces infl ation persistence more than fi xed-money targeting, the study by Papava & Charaia [39], which addressed the problems caused by infl ation in the developing Asia-Paci fi c region during the global pandemic, Oil prices socks and infl ation rate persistence for Algeria: a fractional cointegration... found that infl ation targeting mechanisms have failed, especially in developing countries, due to uncontrollable external factors (imported infl ation, fl uctuating oil prices, supply chain disruptions, the war between Russia and Ukraine, etc.) that have overshadowed internal factors.…”

Section: The Inflation Rate Persistence Is Affected By Structural Eco...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Prices Shocks and Inflation Rate Persistence for Algeria: A Fractional Cointegration Relationship

BENKHELOUF,

SAHED

2024

ЕУ

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This study aims to analyse the relationship between oil prices and inflation rates in Algeria to determine the extent of inflation persistence in face to oil price shocks from January1998 to March 2023 using the recently developed Fractional Cointegration Model, which allows residuals to be fractionally integrated rather than stationary, with the classical cointegration approach based on I(0) stationarity or I(1) cointegrating relationships. This topic was chosen due to its significance for monetary policymakers, investors, financial analysts and academics in understanding the dynamics of inflation persistence in Algeria and studying the impact of some price shocks on it, such as oil price shocks. Our results also showed that Algeria has a co-integration relationship between oil prices and the inflation rate, with an estimated persistence of 0.883, which is greater than 0.5 and less than 1. This indicates that the impact of oil price shocks is still present for a long time on the inflation rate persistence in Algeria, in other words the inflation rate in Algeria will persistence for a longer period due to the shock of oil prices before eventually fading away, and with the adoption of a monetary policy targeting inflation in Algeria, it will contribute to reducing the inflation rates persistence.

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“…Thus, inflation modifications such as agflation, munflation and imflation nowadays obtained a much clearer significance, than the simple, old-fashioned inflation indicator (Charaia & Papava, 2017, 2018.…”

Section: Responding the Challengementioning

confidence: 99%

On Supply-Side Inflation and Some Unconventional Indicators for Measuring Inflation

Charaia,

Papava

2023

IBES

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The paper provides an analysis of the inflation problem caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and continued by Russia’s war against Ukraine, through different channels, including global supply chain disruption, increased governmental spending, decreased supply of goods and, etc. Inflation, which in this case was supply-side driven inflation, caused serious debates in terms of how to tackle the challenge. Should central banks use their standard instruments and is it enough to use the old-fashioned inflation index to create an economic recovery and anti-inflationary policies for different countries, especially when speaking about import-dependent, consumer-style developing countries? Herein, we analyze the most recent challenges of the inflationary process, starting from the point of how it launched and finishing with the issue of how to overcome this current crisis. Some unconventional macroeconomic indicators are also offered for governments and central banks for a better and more in-depth understanding of inflation and for the creation of better policy vis-à-vis inflation.

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Agflation and other modifications of inflation (the cases of Georgia and its neighboring countries)

Cited by 8 publications

References 2 publications

Modern Analyses of Macroeconomic Indices for Medium and Long Term Plans in Georgia

Modern Analyses of Macroeconomic Indices for Medium and Long Term Plans in Georgia

Oil Prices Shocks and Inflation Rate Persistence for Algeria: A Fractional Cointegration Relationship

On Supply-Side Inflation and Some Unconventional Indicators for Measuring Inflation

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