Ageratina adenophora and Lantana camara in Kailash Sacred Landscape, India: Current distribution and future climatic scenarios through modeling

Abstract

The Himalayan region is one of the global biodiversity hotspots. However, its biodiversity and ecosystems are threatened due to abiotic and biotic drivers. One of the major biotic threats to biodiversity in this region is the rapid spread of Invasive Alien Species (IAS). Natural forests and grasslands are increasingly getting infested by IAS affecting regeneration of native species and decline in availability of bio-resources. Assessing the current status of IAS and prediction of their future spread would be vital for evolving specific species management interventions. Keeping this in view, we conducted an in-depth study on two IASs, viz., Ageratina adenophora and Lantana camara in the Indian part of Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL), Western Himalaya. Intensive field surveys were conducted to collect the presence of A. adenophora (n = 567) and L. camara (n = 120) along an altitudinal gradient between 300 and 3000 m a.s.l. We performed Principal Component Analysis to nullify the multi-colinearity effects of the environmental predictors following MaxEnt species distribution model in the current and future climatic scenarios for both the species. All current and future model precision (i.e., Area Under the Curve; AUC) for both species was higher than 0.81. It is predicted that under the current rate of climate change and higher emission (i.e., RCP 8.5 pathway), A. adenophora will spread 45.3% more than its current distribution and is likely to reach up to 3029 m a.s.l., whereas, L. camara will spread 29.8% more than its current distribution range and likely to reach up to 3018 m a.s.l. Our results will help in future conservation planning and participatory management of forests and grasslands in the Kailash Sacred Landscape–India.

Evidence of the niche expansion of crofton weed following invasion in China

“…Further, the geographical distribution of A. adenophora may expand to Southeast China, which has suitable climatic conditions for colonization. To date, regional studies in Nepal (Poudel et al, 2020), India (Chaudhary et al, 2021), and South Africa (Tererai & Wood, 2014) have predicted that the geographic distribution of A. adenophora will expand under climate change. Therefore, climate warming appears to be conducive to the survival of A. adenophora , augmenting its global invasion risk.…”

Distribution, drivers and restoration priorities of plant invasions in India

“…Anthropogenic disturbance in the form of livestock grazing facilitated invasive plants Senna tora (Supporting Information Text 1.10). India's forests are surrounded by one of the densest human population, livestock population and linear infrastructure in the world (Nayak et al, 2020), which not only extract plant biomass or fragment these ecosystems but also act as conduit for the spread of invasive species (Chaudhary et al, 2021; Mungi et al, 2021). These prevalent human modifications likely explain the pervasive invasions across India.…”

“…which not only extract plant biomass or fragment these ecosystems but also act as conduit for the spread of invasive species (Chaudhary et al, 2021;Mungi et al, 2021). These prevalent human modifications likely explain the pervasive invasions across India.…”

Actions to halt biodiversity loss generally benefit the climate

“…This initiative has great potential to generate climate change mitigation and adaptation co‐benefits through carbon sequestration and storage in natural systems—in forests, rangelands and soils (Aryal et al, 2018; Joshi et al, 2019; Liniger et al, 2020; Uddin et al, 2015). In addition, the initiative has benefited local and distant users through a range of NCP, such as timber, fodder, fuel wood, medicinal plants, water (Badola et al, 2017; Chaudhary et al, 2020; Liniger et al, 2020; Nepal et al, 2018; Tewari et al, 2020; Thapa et al, 2018), protection of Kailash Mountain and Mansarovar (cultural/religious sites), and the promotion of eco‐tourism (Adler et al, 2013; Pandey et al, 2016). Kailash Sacred Landscape also benefits distant downstream users through the (continued) provision of flowing waters for irrigation and other purposes (including hydro‐power generation) by protecting the sources.…”