Agent-based modelling and socio-technical energy transitions: A systematic literature review

Hansen, Paula; Liu, Xin; Morrison, Gregory M.

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2018.10.021

Cited by 153 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Further, applications of the proposed framework include small microgrids to large energy systems. Paula et al (Hansen et al, 2018) identify the research gap in the literature on agent-based modeling and energy transitions; based on an extensive review, the potentials of the agent-based modeling in energy transitions is divided into six areas covering different components of the energy system. Mahmood et al (2020a) present an extensive review on a wide range of agent-based models that are used in simulating the demand and supply of energy at various resolutions.…”

Section: Agent-based Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling, simulation and forecasting of wind power plants using agent-based approach

Mahmood

Mobeen

Rahman

et al. 2020

Journal of Cleaner Production

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National economy and growth rely heavily on electricity but rapid urbanization, expeditious industrialization and increased domestic use due to population growth are among the reasons for the severe energy crisis in developing countries. The extended demand-supply gaps, depleting reservoirs of fossil fuel, and the environmental hazards altogether ignite the need for wider adoption of renewable energy resources for electricity generation. A functional assessment of the engineering design for this transition is a prerequisite before proceeding to on-ground implementation due to its high impact on system sustainability. To this end, we propose an agent-based modeling and simulation framework for the rapid prototyping of wind power plants. The proposed approach abstracts active components of wind power plants using agents and implements their dynamic behavior through agent interactions. The proposed model helps in composing different model components, design valuation, and forecasting energy generation in a cost-effective and productive manner. The proposed model is demonstrated by conceptualizing the design of the Foundation Wind Energy plant, located at Sindh, Pakistan, and the development of its agent-based model. The obtained short-term and long-term electricity generation profiles are validated with the actual data. We further compared the forecasts with the time series analysis performed on the actual data, using five different time-series forecasting models. The proposed simulation model and time series analysis model fit well on the actual data with a root mean square deviation of approximately 9 MW. The proposed framework will assist the policymakers in estimating the extent of electrical energy produced at given conditions using the wind potential available at the corridors of any country. It will further aid in the realistic analysis of the future dynamics of electricity demand and supply, hence help in effective energy planning.

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Section: Agent-based Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling, simulation and forecasting of wind power plants using agent-based approach

Mahmood

Mobeen

Rahman

et al. 2020

Journal of Cleaner Production

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“…They reveal and emphasize different policy interventions, social interpretations, scales, and interactions. Here, we provide an overview of the important advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches from analytical, methodological, and policy perspectives [12,29,30]. Technology innovation systems (TISs), another approach to analyzing technology transitions, are discussed as a comparison with MLP.…”

Section: Advantages and Disadvantagesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Combined Multi-Level Perspective and Agent-Based Modeling in Low-Carbon Transition Analysis

Zhao

Shen

et al. 2020

Energies

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Low-carbon transitions are long-term complex processes that are driven by multiple factors. To provide a theoretical and practical framework of this process, we argue that the combination of the multi-level perspective (MLP) and agent-based modeling (ABM) enables us to reach a deeper and detailed analysis of low-carbon transitions. As an extensively applied theoretical form, MLP conceptualizes low-carbon transitions as a nonlinear process and allows a system to be analyzed and organized into multiple dimensions (landscape, regime, and niche). However, MLP cannot explain the many details of complex transitions, whereas ABM can estimate the influence of interacting behaviors in a complex system. Therefore, the main advantages of the combined approach for the analysis of low-carbon transition are verified: the MLP can contribute to the overall design of ABM, and ABM can provide a dynamic, continuous, and quantitative description of the MLP. To construct this combination framework, this paper offers a guiding principle that combines the two perspectives under a low-carbon transitional background to create an integrated strategy using three procedures: defining the common concepts, their interaction, and their combination. Through the proposed framework, the goal of this work was to reach a better understanding of social system evolution from the present high-carbon state to a low-carbon state under the pressure of ambitious climate goals, providing specific policy recommendations.

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“…Os desenvolvimentos alcançados nesse cenário compreendem tendências de mudanças lentas, como demografia, ideologia, estruturas, geopolítica e choques exógenos, como guerras, crises econômicas, grandes acidentes, sublevações políticas (HANSEN et al, 2019).…”

Section: Revisão Teórica Sobre Transição Sociotécnicaunclassified

“…A perspectiva multinível distingue quatro fases nesses processos de transição de décadas (HANSEN et al, 2019). Na primeira fase, inovações radicais emergem em nichos, à margem dos regimes existentes.…”

Section: Revisão Teórica Sobre Transição Sociotécnicaunclassified

Transição Sociotécnica na Cadeia Produtiva do Café no Estado de Rondônia

Silva¹,

Souza

Rodríguez

et al. 2020

RCS

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As abordagens técnico-econômicas nos estudos de uma cadeia produtivasão cruciais para analisar as transições. Logo, o objetivo deste estudo éanalisar o nível da transição sociotécnica da cadeia produtiva do café no estadode Rondônia. Sua relevância consiste em enfatizar os benefícios intangíveis daevolução desse tipo de sistema sociotécnico, estimando seu valor ou a necessidadede seu aperfeiçoamento. A pesquisa foi qualitativa, auxiliada por técnicasde estatística descritiva e inferencial. O instrumentode coleta de dados procurou mensurar a percepção dos participantessobre cada segmento ou elo da cadeia produtiva e foram aplicados os testesde hipóteses não-paramétricos de Kruskal-Wallis e U de Mann-Whitney parasustentar a análise sobre diferenças significativas na percepção da amostra, separadaem dois grupos, Leste e Madeira Guaporé. O estudo realizado concluiuque o sistema sociotécnico na cadeia produtiva do café já se encontra na quartafase, na consolidação de um novo regime.

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Agent-based modelling and socio-technical energy transitions: A systematic literature review

Cited by 153 publications

References 63 publications

Modeling, simulation and forecasting of wind power plants using agent-based approach

Modeling, simulation and forecasting of wind power plants using agent-based approach

A Combined Multi-Level Perspective and Agent-Based Modeling in Low-Carbon Transition Analysis

Transição Sociotécnica na Cadeia Produtiva do Café no Estado de Rondônia

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