Agent-based modeling and simulation to assess flood preparedness and recovery of manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises

Coates, Graham; Li, Chunhui; Ahilan, S; Wright, Nigel; Alharbi, Meshal

doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2018.11.010

Cited by 26 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In addition, an overview of the validation approach followed for the ABMS is discussed in terms of conceptual and operational validation, which involved analysing transcripts from over one hundred interviews with SMEs and running two SME workshops in Tewkesbury and Sheffield. By contrast with the research presented in [55], this article includes an application of ABMS to a new case study, i.e. the significant 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, and introduces a new operational resilience measure to enable the relative effectiveness of flood mitigation measures implemented by manufacturing SMEs to be evaluated.…”

Section: (C) Agent-based Modelling and Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

Coates

Alharbi

et al. 2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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The resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to disruptive events is significant as this highly prevalent category of business forms the economic backbone in developed countries. This article provides an overview of the application of a computational modelling and simulation approach to evaluate SMEs' operational resilience to flooding based on combinations of structural and procedural mitigation measures that may be implemented to improve their premises' resistance to flooding and safeguard their business continuity. The approach integrates flood modelling and simulation with agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) within a modelled geographical environment. SMEs are modelled as agents based on findings of semi-structured interviews with SMEs that have experienced flooding or are at risk of flooding. In this paper, the ABMS has been applied to a new case study of the major flood event of 2007 in Tewkesbury. Furthermore, to enable an evaluation of the operational resilience of manufacturing SMEs in terms of the relative effectiveness of flood mitigation measures, a new coefficient based on production loss is introduced. Results indicate structural mitigation measures are more effective than procedural measures. While this result is intuitive, the approach provides a means of evaluating the relative effectiveness of combinations of mitigation measures that SMEs may implement to enhance their operational resilience to flooding. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Urban flood resilience’.

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Section: (C) Agent-based Modelling and Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

Coates

Alharbi

et al. 2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

Self Cite

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“…Using the above-mentioned criteria, we collected 28 articles published between 2009-2020 to form the core of our analysis 1 (Figure 2). Some of the comprehensive papers that look at societal dynamics and floods are outside the scope because they prioritize different processes such as the immediate evacuation response (Dawson et al, 2011) or a short-term recovery in the first few months (Coates et al, 2019). Alternatively, some articles use cellular models (McNamara & Werner, 2008;Werner & McNamara, 2007) or are not peer-reviewed (Sobiech, 2013;Walsh & Hallegatte, 2019).…”

Section: Scope and Search Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the backbone of regional resilience and recovery -the role of firms that provide households with jobs and income -is entirely overlooked in flood-ABMs. Flood-ABMs could learn from the first attempts to incorporate firms' behavior in ABMs in response to other hazards Eid & El-Adaway, 2018) and immediate disaster response (Coates et al, 2016(Coates et al, , 2019.…”

Section: Recovery and Reorganizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracing resilience, social dynamics and behavioral change: a review of agent-based flood risk models

Taberna

Filatova

Roy

et al. 2020

SESMO

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Climate change and rapid urbanization exacerbate flood risks worldwide. The recognition of the crucial role that human actors play in altering risks and resilience of flood-prone cities triggers a paradigm shift in climate risks assessments and drives the proliferation of computational models that include societal dynamics. Yet, replacing a representative rational actor dominant in climate policy models with a variety of behaviorally-rich agents that interact, learn, and adapt is not straightforward. Focusing on the costliest climate-exacerbated hazard, flooding, we review computational agent-based models that include behavioral change and societal dynamics. We distinguish between two streams of literature: one stemming from economics & behavioral sciences and another from hydrology. Our findings show that most studies focus on households while representing decisions of other agents (government, insurance, urban developers) simplistically and entirely overlooking firms' choices in the face of risks. The two communities vary in the extent they ground agents' rules in social theories and behavioral data when modeling boundedly-rational decisions. While both aspire to trace feedbacks that agents collectively instigate, they employ different learning and interactions when computing societal dynamics in the face of climate risks. Dynamics of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components of flood risks driven by incremental adaptation of agents are well represented. We highlight that applying a complex adaptive system perspective to trace the evolution of resilience can lead to a better understanding of transformational adaptation. The methodological advances in computational models with heterogeneous behaviorally-rich adaptive agents are relevant for adaptation to different climate-driven hazards beyond flooding.

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“…Recently the importance of the use of ABM for understanding the recovery processes has been demonstrated (Mishra et al 2018) and researchers started simulating the post-disaster recovery process (Coates et al 2019;Fan et al 2019;Kanno et al 2018;Nejat and Damnjanovic 2012). However, since recovery is a complex process consisting of various components that may change based on disaster type and environment conditions, the few existing studies are not sufficient to understand and explore all influential factors of the recovery, and consequently, there is a need for ABM-based experiments to explore other components and their effects in the recovery process.…”

Section: Agent-based Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their model provides a tool for managers to have an overall estimation of future tourist decline, as well as economic losses during the postearthquake recovery period. Coates et al (2019) developed an ABM to assess the flood recovery and preparedness adaptation measures for small and medium-sized enterprises. They mainly studied physical and social adaptation factors and showed their combined significance effects in the adaptation of a key industrial area of the UK for a severe flooding scenario.…”

Section: Agent-based Modelling Of Post-disaster Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Post-disaster recovery assessment using remote sensing image analysis and agent-based modeling

Ghaffarian¹

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Brown et al. (2011) developed a model to assess the damage and early recovery using remote sensing data and ground survey tools after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The recovery step of their study includes buildings, accessibility (Figure 1.6), power, and water livelihoods assessments. In this study, only the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) computation was implemented automatically, and other information such as building change detection, accessibility assessments, etc. were done manually.Chapter 8 -Synthesis: synthesizes the results of the individual chapters. It provides the main findings, contributions of this research, reflects on the work, and discuss the usability of the proposed approaches from a stakeholder perspective. The future outlook for improving each of the proposed research lines and methods in this research is also reported.

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Agent-based modeling and simulation to assess flood preparedness and recovery of manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises

Abstract: This is a repository copy of Agent-based modeling and simulation to assess flood preparedness and recovery of manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises.

Cited by 26 publications

References 42 publications

Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

Evaluating the operational resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises to flooding using a computational modelling and simulation approach: a case study of the 2007 flood in Tewkesbury

Tracing resilience, social dynamics and behavioral change: a review of agent-based flood risk models

Post-disaster recovery assessment using remote sensing image analysis and agent-based modeling

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