Ageing by feet? Regional migration, neighbourhood choice and local demographic change in German cities

Abstract

In countries with an ageing population, regional migration affects the local consequences of demographic change. This paper investigates whether ageing implicates a more distinct residential segregation by age and results in an accelerated “ageing by feet” in urban districts not favoured by younger people. The large urban regions of North Rhine‐Westphalia in Germany serve as a case study that comprises both growing and stagnating cities. Thriving cities in the Rhineland (Bonn, Cologne and Düsseldorf) contrast with the Ruhr, where the population stagnates and ageing proceeds even more rapidly than in Germany as a whole. Intraurban variation in demographic change over the period 1998–2008 is examined using municipal statistics. The underlying segregation process is studied on the basis of a discrete choice model of neighbourhood sorting, using microdata from a representative survey carried out in the Ruhr in 2010. The analysis shows that in the course of an urban revival during the 1990s and 2000s, it was typical of individuals aged under 30 to prefer residence close to city centres. However, in the Ruhr, young adults were not underrepresented in households moving to ageing neighbourhoods that are located within a certain distance to centres either. It appears, therefore, that regional ageing will not necessarily lead to a self‐reinforcing agglomeration of young adults in the most popular central city quarters. Given a continued desire for urban centrality, however, it will become difficult for households with children to find suitable and affordable accommodation in the more central parts of large cities.

The joint distribution of age and race in racially integrated neighbourhoods

“…Demographers predict that age gaps between Blacks, Asians, and Whites will narrow slightly by 2050, but Hispanics will stay considerably younger than the rest of the population due to ongoing immigration and higher fertility (Gerst‐Emerson & Burr, 2013). Although other Western countries are characterised by different configurations of ethnoracial groups, the general pattern of demographic divergence is not unique to the U.S. context: many countries in Europe are also home to ageing white native populations, with international immigrants constituting a growing share of the youth and working‐age populations in many urban centers (Neumann, 2018).…”

“…(Baar, 1996), meaning that as households form, expand and contract, changing housing needs require a move to a different neighbourhood or even city. In other words, age segregation occurs through both “ageing in place” and “ageing by feet” (McCallion, 2013; Neumann, 2018). As a result, two‐thirds of U.S. census tracts have age distributions that differ significantly from the national age composition, either over‐representing young adults, families, or seniors (Moorman et al, 2016).…”

Aging of the society: the European perspective

“…Subjects of studies focus on theoretical and empirical issues, analysing the impact of population aging on demographic processes (e.g., Coulson, 1968;Cheal, 2000;Sanderson & Scherbov, 2007Walford & Kurek, 2008;Długosz, 2003;Długosz & Biały, 2013;Gregory & Patuelli, 2015;Horn & Schweppe, 2016). Since the 1980s, studies focused on migration of seniors have contributed considerably to the development of this academic subject (e.g., Newbold, 1996;King et al, 1998;Gaag et al, 2000;Marr & Millerd, 2004;Bahar et al, 2009) and are still being explored by academic scholars (e.g., Atkins, 2017;Pytel, 2017;Rallu, 2017;Neumann, 2018). Presently, there are more interpretations set in various contexts, including the issue of changes in spatial and functional structure of urban and rural areas due to population aging (e.g., Bloom et al, 2015;Stjernborg et al, 2015).…”