Age-Stratified COVID-19 Spread Analysis and Vaccination: A Multitype Random Network Approach

Zhu, Guangyu; Zhang, Lan; Fang, Yuguang; Guo, Linke; Chen, Xinguang

doi:10.1109/tnse.2021.3075222

Cited by 17 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Two general approaches have been used to overcome this issue. First, several studies recomputed the overall contact matrix as a linear combination of the four location-specific pre-pandemic contact matrices (Matrajt et al, 2021b; Foy et al, 2021; Kiem et al, 2021; Chen et al, 2021; Moore et al, 2021b). That is, …”

Section: Key Implementation Details In Vaccine Prioritization Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this case, the vulnerable population is protected indirectly, by reaching herd immunity and a stop of community spread. This strategy becomes particularly reasonable in situations with low community spread (i.e., the effective reproductive number R eff ≈ 1) (Chen et al, 2021; Althobaity et al, 2022; Gozzi et al, 2021) and in which the epidemic is already in decline (i.e., d R eff ( t ) /dt < 0) (Molla et al, 2022). One prominent study agrees that younger individuals should only be prioritized, when minimizing deaths, if effective reproductive numbers are low but finds that a slow roll-out (and not a fast one) is an additional requirement (Bubar et al, 2021).…”

Section: Key Implementation Details In Vaccine Prioritization Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many models have investigated how optimal prioritization schemes depend on this key epidemiological parameter. As described above, prioritization of high-contact, low-risk younger individuals becomes a reasonable choice, when minimizing deaths, if the effective reproductive number is close to 1 (Chen et al, 2021; Althobaity et al, 2022; Gozzi et al, 2021; Bubar et al, 2021), especially if it is decreasing (Molla et al, 2022). A French study further clarifies that young individuals should only be prioritized if the vaccine acts almost entirely by reducing infections (that is, if ɛ 1 >> ɛ 2 ) (Kiem et al, 2021).…”

Section: Key Implementation Details In Vaccine Prioritization Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

Gonzalez-Parra,

Mahmud,

Kadelka

2024

Preprint

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As the world becomes ever more connected, the chance of pandemics increases as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic and the concurrent global mass vaccine roll-out provides an ideal setting to learn from and refine our understanding of infectious disease models for better future preparedness. In this review, we systematically analyze and categorize mathematical models that have been developed to design optimal vaccine prioritization strategies of an initially limited vaccine. As older individuals are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, the focus is on models that take age explicitly into account. The lower mobility and activity level of older individuals gives rise to non-trivial trade-offs. Secondary research questions concern the optimal time interval between vaccine doses and spatial vaccine distribution. This review showcases the effect of various modeling assumptions on model outcomes. A solid understanding of these relationships yields better infectious disease models and thus public health decisions during the next pandemic.

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Section: Key Implementation Details In Vaccine Prioritization Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Key Implementation Details In Vaccine Prioritization Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Key Implementation Details In Vaccine Prioritization Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

Gonzalez-Parra,

Mahmud,

Kadelka

2024

Preprint

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“…The authors point out that due to the slow COVID-19 vaccination rate, non-drug prevention and control measures still need to be enforced until a sufficient proportion of the population is vaccinated. There are also some studies discussing vaccination prioritization strategies, such as [25] , [26] , [27] , [28] . In this paper, we present a SVAIRS (susceptible-vaccinated-asymptomatic-symptomatic-removed-susceptible) model to analyze whether the COVID-19 epidemic can be completely eliminated by vaccination alone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of vaccination on the spread of COVID-19: Studying by a mathematical model

Yang

Cai

2022

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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The global spread of COVID-19 has not been effectively controlled, posing a huge threat to public health and the development of the global economy. Currently, a number of vaccines have been approved for use and vaccination campaigns have already started in several countries. This paper designs a mathematical model considering the impact of vaccination to study the spread dynamics of COVID-19. Some basic properties of the model are analyzed. The basic reproductive number of the model is obtained, and the conditions for the existence of endemic equilibria are provided. There exist two endemic equilibria when under certain conditions, which will lead to backward bifurcation. The stability of equilibria are analyzed, and the condition for the backward bifurcation is given. Due to the existence of backward bifurcation, even if , COVID-19 may remain prevalent. Sensitivity analysis and simulations show that improving vaccine efficacy can control the spread of COVID-19 faster, while increasing the vaccination rate can reduce and postpone the peak of infection to a greater extent. However, in reality, the improvement of vaccine efficacy cannot be realized in a short time, and relying only on increasing the vaccination rate cannot quickly achieve the control of COVID-19. Therefore, relying only on vaccination may not completely and quickly control COVID-19. Some non-pharmaceutical interventions should continue to be enforced to combat the virus. According to the sensitivity analysis, we improve the model by including some non-pharmaceutical interventions. Combining the sensitivity analysis with the simulation of the improved model, we conclude that together with vaccination, reducing the contact rate of people and increasing the isolation rate of infected individuals will greatly reduce the number of infections and shorten the time of COVID-19 spread. The analysis and simulations in this paper can provide some useful suggestions for the prevention and control of COVID-19.

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“…of COVID-19 (especially patients at an advanced age) decreased the mortality rates(Chen et al 2021). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Early Phase COVID-19 Vaccination on Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

Güllü

Kulucan

Tuna

et al. 2022

Tohoku J. Exp. Med.

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The number of cases globally is over a 225million, and disease-related deaths are over 4 million.The type, prevalence, and antibody susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 virus variants and the vaccination rate and coverage are considered critical factors in the progress of COVID-19.We aimed to compare the clinical and laboratory parameters of the patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 in pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods. We conducted this retrospective cross-sectional study in a tertiary clinic in Turkey. The files of the patients over the age of 18, whose real-time polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR)tests were positive and who were hospitalized before(November-December 2020, Group 1) and after (March-April2021, Group 2) COVID-19 vaccination were scanned. Patients' demographical data, clinical severity, laboratory parameters, thorax computed tomography involvement, and mortalities were recorded. The obtained data were compared among the groups. 601patients(344 male,57% and 257 female,43%) were included in the study. It was observed that the patients in the Group 2 were younger (60.71±14.06 vs. 66.95±14.57, p<0.001), and a significant decrease in mortality (83(28.6%) vs.139(44.6%), p=0.001) were observed in Group2. The number of patients who needed ventilatory support and the rate of pulmonary involvement was lesser in Group2, but the difference was non-significant. CRP, D-dimer, procalcitonin levels were significantly low in group2 patients. Our study shows that the age and mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients decreased significantly after vaccination. An increase in the number of booster doses in individuals with advanced age(age>75) and comorbidity (especially malignancy) may contribute to the control of the disease and immunity in this population.

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Age-Stratified COVID-19 Spread Analysis and Vaccination: A Multitype Random Network Approach

Cited by 17 publications

References 31 publications

Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models

The impact of vaccination on the spread of COVID-19: Studying by a mathematical model

The Impact of Early Phase COVID-19 Vaccination on Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

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