Age-period-cohort analysis of pancreatitis epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts for 2044: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Jiang, Wenkai; Du, Yan; Xiang, Caifei; Li, Xin; Zhou, Wence

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1118888

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Advanced age is a well-known risk factor for the severity of AP. Multiorgan failure, SAP, and death are more prevalent among elderly patients compared to younger ones [23,24]. Age is one of the components of several severity indices, such as Ranson's criteria, the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, and BISAP [25].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neutrophil–Creatinine Index: A New Prognostic Factor for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Sahin

2024

Medicina

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Background and Objectives: Determining the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) is the main goal in the early stage of AP. The aim of this study was to compare laboratory parameters and indices, including the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the neutrophil–creatinine index (NCI), at admission in order to predict the severity of AP. Materials and Methods: Data from 421 patients who were admitted with a diagnosis of AP were collected retrospectively. Disease severity was assessed using the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). BISAP was graded as mild and severe, and RAC was graded as mild (MAP), moderately severe (MSAP), and severe (SAP). The laboratory parameters and indices, including the NLR and NCI, were compared. Results: Of the patients, 70 (16.6%) had severe AP according to BISAP; the AP subgroups according to the RAC were as follows: MAP (n = 213), MSAP (n = 158), and SAP (n = 50). The NCI had the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve value (0.862), demonstrating severe disease according to BISAP, with a sensitivity of 78.6% and a specificity of 79.8%. Age (OR:1.046), white blood cell count (WBC) (OR:1.141), hematocrit (OR:1.081), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR:1.040), and NCI (OR:1.076) were independently associated with severe disease, according to the multivariate analysis results, and were determined as components of the newly developed nomogram. The AUROC of the nomogram (0.891) was superior to the AUROCs of all the components of the nomogram except the NCI. Moreover, the NCI was the only parameter to distinguish MSAP from MAP (OR:1.119, 95% CI: 1.015–1.235, p = 0.023) and SAP from MSAP (OR:1.095, 95% CI: 1.031–1.162, p = 0.003). Conclusions: The present study enabled the identification of the neutrophil–creatinine index as a new prognostic tool for the assessment of AP severity at hospital admission.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%