Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Monod, Mélodie; Blenkinsop, Alexandra; Xi, Xiaoyue; Hebert, Daniel J.; Bershan, Sivan; Tietze, Simon; Baguelin, Marc; Bradley, Valerie C.; Chen, Yu; Coupland, Helen; Filippi, Sarah; Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan; McManus, Martin; Mellan, Thomas A.; Gandy, Axel; Hutchinson, Michael; Unwin, H. Juliette T.; Elsland, S Van; Vollmer, Michaela; Weber, Sebastian; Zhu, Harrison; Bezancon, Anne; Ferguson, Neil M.; Mishra, Swapnil; Flaxman, Seth; Bhatt, Samir; Ratmann, Oliver

doi:10.1126/science.abe8372

Cited by 284 publications

(233 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…A recent publication in health care workers found an incidence reinfection rate of 1.09 per 10,000 days at risk in anti-Spike seronegative participants and 0.13 per 10,000 person-day in anti-Spike seropositive participants [ 10 ]. Our study depicts a highly exposed population of health care workers dealing with the peak of the first wave of the pandemic in Spain [ 18 ]. Although, our results may not be informative of the risk of reinfection in the community, they highlight the possibility of early newly acquired infections even with the presence of antibodies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Previously Infected and Non-Infected Cohorts of Health Workers at High Risk of Exposure

Sánchez-Montalvà

Fernández‐Naval

Antón

et al. 2021

JCM

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The objective of this study is to assess the risk of newly acquired RNA detection-proven SARS-CoV-2 infection after previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. This is a prospective study conducted from March to September 2020 in Barcelona, Spain. Healthcare workers caring for SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were divided in two cohorts: (a) previously RNA-proven SARS-CoV-2 infected cohort with mild symptoms (IC) and (b) healthy cohort (HC). Weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection assays from nasopharyngeal swabs were performed. Serology status was assessed at the beginning and at the end of the study. Twenty participants were included in each group. The median age was 30 (IQR 27–34.75) years, and 55% were female. The median time of follow up was 49 (IQR 49–51) days. Fifteen out of 246 (6%) nasopharyngeal swab samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2, all in the IC. The percentage of participants in the IC with a probable newly acquired SARS-CoV-2 RNA-proven infection was 20% (95% IC 5.7–43.6%) at the end of the 7-week follow up period. The incidence reinfection rate was 28.6 (95% IC 7.8–73.2) cases per 1000 person-week. Despite detectable IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 participants highly exposed to SARS-CoV-2 may develop a newly acquired SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection episode during the first months after the initial infection.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Previously Infected and Non-Infected Cohorts of Health Workers at High Risk of Exposure

Sánchez-Montalvà

Fernández‐Naval

Antón

et al. 2021

JCM

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“…The older age groups (27+ years) in comparison had only two times the risk of infection of the 5-17 year group, indicating the young adult group (18)(19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27) to be at higher risk of infection [35]. Studies further indicate that Covid-19 transmission through young adults is higher compared to other age groups [36]. Therefore, the inference is that the youth suffer from an optimism bias compared to the elderly.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Behavioural response to the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa

Kollamparambil

Oyenubi

2021

PLoS ONE

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Background Given the economic and social divide that exists in South Africa, it is critical to manage the health response of its residents to the Covid-19 pandemic within the different socio-economic contexts that define the lived realities of individuals. Objective The objective of this study is to analyse the Covid-19 preventive behaviour and the socio-economic drivers behind the health-response behaviour. Data The study employs data from waves 1 and 2 of South Africa’s nationally representative National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS)—Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (CRAM). The nationally representative panel data has a sample of 7073 individuals in Wave 1 and 5676 individuals in Wave 2. Methods The study uses bivariate statistics, concentration indices and multivariate estimation techniques, ranging from a probit, control-function approach, special-regressor method and seemingly unrelated regression to account for endogeneity while identifying the drivers of the response behaviour. Findings The findings indicate enhanced behavioural responsiveness to Covid-19. Preventive behaviour is evolving over time; the use of face mask has overtaken handwashing as the most utilised preventive measure. Other measures, like social distancing, avoiding close contact, avoiding big groups and staying at home, have declined between the two periods of the study. There is increased risk perception with significant concentration among the higher income groups, the educated and older respondents. Our findings validate the health-belief model, with perceived risk, self-efficacy, perceived awareness and barriers to preventive strategy adoption identified as significant drivers of health-response behaviour. Measures such as social distancing, avoiding close contact, and the use of sanitisers are practised more by the rich and educated, but not by the low-income respondents. Conclusion The respondents from lower socio-economic backgrounds are associated with optimism bias and face barriers to the adoption of preventive strategies. This requires targeted policy attention in order to make response behaviour effective.

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“…In some of these countries, if key transmitters are vaccinated (with vaccines that are capable of limiting transmission and not just reducing severity of disease and mortality), and if current disease control measures are maintained and higher-transmissibility virus variants don’t become common, then it may be possible to halt transmission of the disease completely, while waiting for further vaccine supplies to arrive (after which disease control measures could be released). The strategy to start with key transmitters to suppress the disease has already been adopted by Indonesia [44] , and a recent paper proposed that mass vaccination of adults aged 20-49 should be considered in the United States to bring the disease under control because the reproduction number for this group has remained above 1 and sustained resurgences in cases [45] . For each country in Categories D and E, careful modelling would be necessary to determine if the key transmitter strategy is optimal, taking into account the likely supplies of vaccines and when they will be available.…”

Section: Implications For Immunity Testing Disease Control and Vaccination Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Categorizing the Status of COVID-19 Outbreaks Around the World

Callan¹,

Nouwen²,

Lexmond³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Although the SARS-CoV-19 virus spread rapidly around in world in early 2020, disease epidemics in different places evolved differently as the year progressed - and the state of the COVID-19 pandemic now varies significantly across different countries and territories. We have created a taxonomy of possible categories of disease dynamics, and used the evolution of reported COVID-19 cases relative to changes in disease control measures, together with total reported cases and deaths, to allocate most countries and territories among the possible categories. As of 31 January 2021, we find that the disease was (1) kept out or suppressed quickly through quarantines and testing & tracing in 39 countries with 29 million people, (2) suppressed on one or more occasions through control measures in 74 countries with 2.49 billion people, (3) spread slowly but not suppressed, with cases still increasing or just past a peak, in 31 countries with 1.45 billion people, (4) spread through the population, but slowed a result of control measures, leading to a "flattened curve" and fewer infections than if the epidemic were unmitigated, in 32 countries with 2.24 billion people, and (5) spread through the population with some but limited mitigation in 5 countries with 168 million people. In addition, several countries have experienced increases in cases after disease appeared to have finished spreading due to declining numbers of susceptible people. For some of these countries - for example Kenya, Pakistan and Afghanistan - the resurgences can be explained by the relaxation of control measures (and may have been enhanced by disease spread in population segments that experienced lower infection levels during the first waves). For other countries, the resurgences point to the effects of new virus variants with higher-transmissibility or immunity resistance - including most countries in Southern Africa (where the B.1.351 variant has been identified) and several countries in West Africa (maybe due to the B.1.351 or a different variant). These findings are consistent with mounting evidence of high infection rates in several low- and middle-income countries, both from seroprevalence studies and estimates of actual deaths from COVID-19 combined with estimates of expected mortality rates. We estimate that 1.3-3.0 billion people, or 17-39% of the global population, have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 to date, and that at least 5 million people have died from COVID-19 - much higher than reported cases and deaths. Disease control policies and vaccination strategies should be designed based on the state of the COVID-19 epidemic in the population - and consequently may need to be different in different countries.

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Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Cited by 284 publications

References 56 publications

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Previously Infected and Non-Infected Cohorts of Health Workers at High Risk of Exposure

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Previously Infected and Non-Infected Cohorts of Health Workers at High Risk of Exposure

Behavioural response to the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa

Categorizing the Status of COVID-19 Outbreaks Around the World

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