Age‐at‐death patterns and transition analysis trends for three Asian populations: Implications for [paleo]demography

ObjectivesWe estimate adult age frequencies from Unar 1 and Unar 2, two late Umm an‐Nar (2400–2100 BCE) tombs in the modern‐day Emirate of Ras al‐Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. These collective tombs each contained hundreds of skeletons in commingled, fragmented, and variably cremated states. Previous studies placed the vast majority of this mortuary community in a generalized “adult” category, as have most analyses of similar tombs from this period. We sought to test how adult age estimation methods compare in identifying young, middle, and old‐age individuals in commingled assemblages.Materials and MethodsWe employed Transition Analysis 3 (TA3) and traditional age estimation methods to generate adult age frequencies for each tomb. We compared these frequencies between tomb contexts as well as by method.ResultsUnar 1 and Unar 2 had similar adult age frequencies within each method, but TA3 age frequencies included significantly more middle and older adult individuals than those generated by traditional methods.DiscussionThese results support findings of earlier iterations of transition analysis in regard to sensitivity in old adult age estimation, compared with traditional methods. Our findings indicate a potential use of TA3 in reconstructing age frequencies and mortality profiles in commingled skeletal assemblages. Increasing our understanding of everyday life in the distant past necessitates better understandings of adult age, and here, we illustrate how age estimation method choice significantly changes bioarchaeological interpretations of aging in Bronze Age Arabia.Research Highlights Adult age estimation using TA3 revealed significantly more middle and older adults than traditional methods in two commingled tombs. Similar mean maximum likelihood point estimates by side and across skeletal elements were found between tombs.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Estimating adult age categories in commingled skeletons with Transition Analysis 3

Bolster,

JeanLouis,

Gregoricka

et al. 2023

“…While some error can be tolerated, we suggest that the use of the method presented here is paired with a discussion and acknowledgement of the age‐at‐death methods specifically used in accordance with this issue. Furthermore, given that some age‐at‐death estimation methods do produce reasonable results despite some error (Boldsen et al, 2002; Clark et al, 2020; Kim & Algee‐Hewitt, 2022; Milner & Boldsen, 2012), it is likely that certain methods may be better suited to this particular method upon further investigation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating fertility using adults: A method for under‐enumerated pre‐adult skeletal samples

Taylor

Oxenham

McFadden

2023

Objectives Infant underrepresentation poses a great risk to accurate palaeodemographic findings when analyzing skeletal samples. Empirically derived palaeodemographic methods all require unbiased or minimally biased pre‐adult representation for estimating demographic characteristics, including fertility. Currently, there are no reliable methods for estimating palaeodemographic parameters when pre‐adults are underrepresented in skeletal samples, consequently such samples are often excluded from palaeodemographic analyses. The aim of this article is to develop a method for estimating total fertility rate (TFR) using reproductive aged adults, specifically for samples with suspected pre‐adult under‐enumeration. Methodology United Nations mortality data and TFR from the World Population Prospects was utilized. The correlation between known fertility and the proportion of individuals in key reproductive years (15–49 years) to total adult sample (15+ years) was assessed as an indirect means to estimate fertility. Results It was determined that the proportion of reproductive aged adults is a reasonable proxy for fertility. A significant positive correlation was observed between the TFR and those who died aged 15–49 years of age as a proportion of those who died ≥15 years (D15‐49/D15+). SE of the estimate revealed reasonable predictive accuracy. When applied to two modern non‐agricultural populations, the method showed some variability in accuracy but good potential for an improved outcome over existing methods when pre‐adults are underrepresented. Conclusion This research has provided a new method for estimating fertility in archeological skeletal samples with pre‐adult under‐enumeration. In combination with a contextually focused approach, this provides a significant step toward further use of biased samples in palaeodemography.

“…Age estimates were generated via transition analysis using the Anthropological Database, Odense University (ADBOU) program Transition Analysis 2 (TA2), version 2.1.046 (Ousley et al, 2016). For each skeleton, pubic symphysis and auricular surface degeneration were scored alongside cranial suture obliteration (Kim & Algee‐Hewitt, 2022; Milner & Boldsen, 2012; Simon & Hubbe, 2021). This method generates a maximum likelihood point estimate (MLPE) for age‐at‐death, with a 95% confidence interval, from the scored pelvic and skull traits (Getz, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Black Death in Hereford, England: A demographic analysis of the Cathedral 14th‐century plague mass graves and associated parish cemetery

Franklin,

Mitchell,

Robb

2023

ObjectivesThis study explores the paleoepidemiology of the Black Death (1348–52 AD) mass graves from Hereford, England, via osteological analysis. Hereford plague mortality is evaluated in the local context of the medieval city and examined alongside other Black Death burials.MethodsThe Hereford Cathedral site includes mass graves relating to the Black Death and a 12th‐16th century parish cemetery. In total, 177 adult skeletons were analyzed macroscopically: 73 from the mass graves and 104 from the parish cemetery. Skeletal age‐at‐death was assessed using transition analysis, and sex and stress markers were analyzed.ResultsThe age‐at‐death distributions for the mass graves and parish cemetery were significantly different (p = 0.0496). Within the mass graves, young adults (15–24 years) were substantially over‐represented, and mortality peaked at 25–34 years. From 35 years of age onwards, there was little variation in the mortality profiles for the mass graves and parish cemetery. Males and females had similar representation across burial types. Linear enamel hypoplasia was more prevalent within the mass graves (p = 0.0340) whereas cribra orbitalia and tibial periostitis were underrepresented.ConclusionsMortality within the Hereford mass graves peaked at a slightly older age than is seen within plague burials from London, but the overall profiles are similar. This demonstrates that young adults were disproportionately at risk of dying from plague compared with other age groups. Our findings regarding stress markers may indicate that enamel hypoplasia is more strongly associated with vulnerability to plague than cribra orbitalia or tibial periostitis.