Age and sex-dependent sensitivity analysis of a common carotid artery model

Abstract

The common carotid artery (CCA) is an accessible and informative site for assessing cardiovascular function which makes it a prime candidate for clinically relevant computational modelling. The interpretation of supplemental information possible through modelling is encumbered by measurement uncertainty and population variability in model parameters. The distribution of model parameters likely depends on the specific sub-population of interest and delineation based on sex, age or health status may correspond to distinct ranges of typical parameter values. To assess this impact in a 1D-CCA-model, we delineated specific sub-populations based on age, sex and health status and carried out uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for each sub-population. We performed a structured literature review to characterize sub-population-specific variabilities for eight model parameters without consideration of health status; variations for a healthy sub-populations were based on previously established references values. The variabilities of diameter and distensibility found in the literature review differed from those previously established in a healthy population. Model diameter change and pulse pressure were most sensitive to variations in distensibility, while pressure was most sensitive to resistance in the Windkessel model for all groups. Uncertainties were lower when variabilities were based on a healthy sub-population; however, the qualitative distribution of sensitivity indices was largely similar between the healthy and general population. Average sensitivity of the pressure waveform showed a moderate dependence on age with decreasing sensitivity to distal resistance and increasing sensitivity to distensibility and diameter. The female population was less sensitive to variations in diameter but more sensitive to distensibility coefficient than the male population. Overall, as hypothesized input variabilities differed between sub-populations and resulted in distinct uncertainties and sensitivities of the 1D-CCA-model outputs, particularly over age for the pressure waveform and between males and females for pulse pressure.