Age and Scientific Genius

Abstract

Great scientific output typically peaks in middle age. A classic literature has emphasized comparisons across fields in the age of peak performance. More recent work highlights large underlying variation in age and creativity patterns, where the average age of great scientific contributions has risen substantially since the early 20th Century and some scientists make pioneering contributions much earlier or later in their life-cycle than others. We review these literatures and show how the nexus between age and great scientific insight can inform the nature of creativity, the mechanisms of scientific progress, and the design of institutions that support scientists, while providing further insights about the implications of aging populations, education policies, and economic growth.

Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends

“…He argues that changes in the supply of workers may have an impact on the innovation rate. Similarly, Jones (2010) and Jones et al (2014) consider the age distribution of scientists (Nobel Prize winners and great technological innovators) and development of ground-breaking ideas. They argue that the scientific or technological breakthroughs peak when scientists are in their late 30's.…”

“…However, as Kremer (1993) discusses if each individual's chance of being lucky or smart enough to invent something is independent of population size, then the number of individuals working relative to total population will be important to determine the aggregate growth rate of invented goods in an economy. Jones (2010), Jones et al (2014) and Feyrer (2008) analyse the age profile of inventors/innovators and show that the frequency of inventions of middle-age individuals is substantially higher than the one observed for younger and older individuals. Derrien et al (2017), exploiting the heterogeneity across regions in the US, show that a younger labour force innovates more.…”

Age, Gender and Research Productivity: A Study of Speech and Hearing Faculty in India

“…As Jones [1] observed: "The intersection of age and great achievements sheds light on a rich landscape, where creativity, knowledge, scientific progress, economic growth, demographics and science institutions all intersect. As studies continue to reveal the forces at work in the age-creativity relationship, this broader landscape will continue to come into sharper focus".…”

Stagnation Versus Growth in Europe

“…Jones (2010) calculates the average age of inventors granted patents in the NBER patent database and finds it to be 48. Jones et al (2014) find that great scientific output typically peaks in middle age and Diamond (1986) finds, using longitudinal data set for scientists and mathematicians, that the quantity and quality of research output declines continuously with age.…”