Against Methodological Gambling

Abstract

Should a scientist rely on methodological triangulation? Heesen et al. (Synthese 196(8):3067–3081, 2019) recently provided a convincing affirmative answer. However, their approach requires belief gambles if the evidence is discordant. We instead propose epistemically modest triangulation (EMT), according to which one should withhold judgement in such cases. We show that for a scientist in a methodologically diffident situation the expected utility of EMT is greater than that of Heesen et al.’s (2019) triangulation or that of using a single method. We also show that EMT is more appropriate for increasing epistemic trust in science. In short: triangulate, but do not gamble with evidence.

Pospeševanje skozi zgodovino

“…Pri tem so v Avtomontaži ročno izdelali deset avtomobilov, a proizvodnjo verjetno zaradi prevelikih stroškov opustili (Krbavčič 2018). Po drugi svetovni vojni so v Avtomontaži izdelovali in predvsem dograjevali trolejbuse in avtobuse na karoserije (Brate 2005;Trpin 2022).…”