After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean

Colón‐González, Felipe J.; Peres, Carlos A.; Bernardo, Christine Steiner São; Hunter, Paul R.; Lake, Iain

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006007

Cited by 54 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(109 reference statements)

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“…LAC countries have some of the highest urbanization rates in the world, often with unequal access to public services in urban settings and high mortality rates for transmittable diseases [23,24]. In some countries, out-of-pocket expenditure for healthcare services places a substantial restriction on access, debilitating viral control efforts [25,26].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interim Analysis of Pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Latin America and the Caribbean: Morbidity, Mortality and Molecular Testing Trends in the Region

Simbaña-Rivera

2020

Preprint

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Background:The relentless advance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic has resulted in a significant burden on countries, regardless of their socio-economic conditions. The virus has infected more than 2.5 million people worldwide, causing to date more than 150,000 deaths in over 210 countries. Objective:The aim of this study was to describe the trends in cases, tests and deaths related to novel coronavirus disease in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Methodology:Data were retrieved from the WHO-Coronavirus Disease (COVID-2019) situation reports and the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) databases from Johns Hopkins University. Descriptive statistics including death rates, cumulative mortality and incidence rates, as well as testing rates per population at risk were performed. A comparison analysis among countries with ≥50 confirmed cases was performed from February 26 th , 2020 to April 8 th , 2020. Results:Brazil had the greatest number of cases and deaths in the region. Panama experienced a rapid increase in the number of confirmed cases with Trinidad and Tobago, Bolivia and Honduras having the highest case fatality rates. Panama and Chile conducted more tests per million inhabitants and more tests per day per million inhabitants, followed by Uruguay and El Salvador. Dominican Republic, Bolivia, Ecuador and Brazil had the highest positive test rates. Conclusions:The COVID-19 disease pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has progressed rapidly in LAC countries. Some countries have been affected more severely than others, with some adopting similar disease control methods to help slow down the spread of the virus. With limited testing and other resources, social distancing is needed to help alleviate the strain on already stretched health systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interim Analysis of Pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Latin America and the Caribbean: Morbidity, Mortality and Molecular Testing Trends in the Region

Simbaña-Rivera

2020

Preprint

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“…Mosquitoes [1]. Recently, ZIKV has become a global public health threat that has brought substantial economic burden to affected countries during the recent outbreak in Latin America [2]. Known for its unique neurotropism, ZIKV was associated with a substantial number of ZIKV-induced neurological disorders, mainly microcephaly in infants and Guillain-Barre syndrome, during 2015 and 2016 in Brazil and Colombia [3, 4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanism of action of methotrexate against Zika virus

Beck

Bernatchez

Zhu

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Zika virus (ZIKV), which is associated with microcephaly in infants and Guillain-Barré 18 syndrome, reemerged as a serious public health threat in Latin America in recent years. Previous 19 high-throughput screening (HTS) campaigns have revealed several potential hit molecules against 20 ZIKV, including methotrexate (MTX), which is clinically used as an anti-cancer chemotherapy and 21 anti-rheumatoid agent. We studied the mechanism of action of MTX against ZIKV in relation to its 22 inhibition of dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) in vitro using Vero and human neural stem cells 23 (hNSCs). As expected, an antiviral effect for MTX against ZIKV was observed, showing up to ten-24 fold decrease in virus titer during MTX treatment. We also observed that addition of leucovorin (a 25 downstream metabolite of DHFR pathway) rescued the ZIKV replication impaired by MTX 26 treatment in ZIKV-infected cells, explaining the antiviral effect of MTX through inhibition of DHFR. 27We also found that addition of adenosine to ZIKV-infected cells was able to rescue ZIKV replication 28 inhibited by MTX, suggesting that restriction of de novo synthesis adenosine triphosphate (ATP) 29 pools suppresses viral replication. These results confirm that the DFHR pathway can be targeted to 30 inhibit replication of ZIKV, similar to other published results showing this effect in related 31 flaviviruses.32

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“…This analysis supports the findings of previous mathematical models of ZIKV. 5,11,13,14 In addition, our study provides estimates of incidence and risk for specific cities, estimates of case reporting rates, incorporates parameter uncertainty, includes out-of-sample validation of the model estimates and uses more data than other modelling studies as we incorporate ZIKV case reports alongside ecological data to determine city-specific epidemic trajectories and seasonality curves.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several mathematical and computational modelling approaches have been developed to forecast continental-level ZIKV transmission 5,[11][12][13][14] . The focus has largely been on estimating which areas are likely to experience epidemic growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

O’Reilly

Lowe

Edmunds

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Background Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America & the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, and has had serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and a lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.Methods Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 91 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vector capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.Results There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p<0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.Conclusions The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in LAC in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.

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After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean

Cited by 54 publications

References 64 publications

Interim Analysis of Pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Latin America and the Caribbean: Morbidity, Mortality and Molecular Testing Trends in the Region

Interim Analysis of Pandemic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Latin America and the Caribbean: Morbidity, Mortality and Molecular Testing Trends in the Region

Mechanism of action of methotrexate against Zika virus

Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

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