African Fertility Changes

Schoumaker, Bruno

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-46889-1_13

Cited by 6 publications

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“…Fertility transition started much later in sub‐Saharan Africa than in other regions of the world, and the pace of the fertility decline there has been slower overall (Bongaarts ; Bongaarts and Casterline ; Howse ; Shapiro and Hinde ). Stalls and reversals in fertility transitions in sub‐Saharan African countries have contributed to the slow declines, and to the uncertainty about sub‐Saharan Africa's future fertility (Schoumaker ).…”

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Stalls in Fertility Transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa: Revisiting the Evidence

Schoumaker¹

2019

Studies in Family Planning

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Stalls in fertility decline were first identified in Ghana and Kenya in the early 2000s, and since then as many as 20 African countries have been classified in the “stall” category at some point. The countries and time periods in which they occurred are not well established, however, and whether stalls in sub‐Saharan Africa are pervasive or not remains an open question. This article identifies where and when fertility stalls have occurred in sub‐Saharan Africa. I combine a variety of data sources and methods to identify cases of fertility stalls strongly supported by the data. I find unambiguous support for stalls in two countries (Namibia and Zimbabwe), very strong support in three additional countries (Congo, Kenya, and Zambia), and fairly strong support in Cameroon, in the early 2000s. Stalls are possible in seven cases in six other countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon, Madagascar, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tanzania), where evidence is moderate. Fertility stalls in sub‐Saharan Africa are thus not widespread, but they are not exceptional either. Further research on the causes of these stalls is key to a better understanding of the future paths of fertility in sub‐Saharan Africa.

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Stalls in Fertility Transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa: Revisiting the Evidence

Schoumaker¹

2019

Studies in Family Planning

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“…In 2010-2015, SSA still had the highest TFR in worldwide comparison (5.1 children per woman on average), with Southern Africa leading the decline (2.6) followed by Eastern (4.9), Western (5.5), and Middle Africa (5.9) (United Nations Population Division 2017). In addition to concerns about the high levels of fertility, there is also much uncertainty about the future course of the transitions (Gerland, Biddlecom, and Kantorova 2017;Schoumaker 2017). In this article we aim to better understand the mechanisms of this slow fertility decline in order to help conceive future developments.…”

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The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa

Lerch¹,

Spoorenberg²

2020

DemRes

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BACKGROUNDThe fertility transition started later in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions of the world. Moreover, the average number of children per woman declined more slowly there, owing to a distinct mechanism of fertility reduction. It has been argued that the fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa proceeded through an increase in birth intervals rather than by a limitation of the number of births. OBJECTIVEWe analyze the fertility transitions in 29 countries to determine which mechanism women resort to in order to reduce their number of children. METHODSUsing multiple sample surveys, we estimate and cross-validate trends in parity progression ratios and birth intervals. We identify sub-regional regularities and vanguard trends in the interplay between the dynamics of the lengthening of birth intervals and birth limitation over the period 1962-2012. RESULTSWhile initial fertility declines were driven by a lengthening of birth intervals at all parities, we observe a recent onset of birth limitation in regions and countries that are most advanced in the fertility transition. CONCLUSIONSThe experience of sub-Saharan Africa shows that if all parities contribute to the fertility transition from the outset, the main drivers of the fertility decline switch from a

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Delaying Parenthood, for Better and for Worse

Skirbekk

2022

Decline and Prosper!

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African Fertility Changes

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

Stalls in Fertility Transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa: Revisiting the Evidence

Stalls in Fertility Transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa: Revisiting the Evidence

The emergence of birth limitation as a new stage in the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa

Delaying Parenthood, for Better and for Worse

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