Aflatoxins in Maize: Can Their Occurrence Be Effectively Managed in Africa in the Face of Climate Change and Food Insecurity?

Abstract

The dangers of population-level mycotoxin exposure have been well documented. Climate-sensitive aflatoxins (AFs) are important food hazards. The continual effects of climate change are projected to impact primary agricultural systems, and consequently food security. This will be due to a reduction in yield with a negative influence on food safety. The African climate and subsistence farming techniques favour the growth of AF-producing fungal genera particularly in maize, which is a food staple commonly associated with mycotoxin contamination. Predictive models are useful tools in the management of mycotoxin risk. Mycotoxin climate risk predictive models have been successfully developed in Australia, the USA, and Europe, but are still in their infancy in Africa. This review aims to investigate whether AFs’ occurrence in African maize can be effectively mitigated in the face of increasing climate change and food insecurity using climate risk predictive studies. A systematic search is conducted using Google Scholar. The complexities associated with the development of these prediction models vary from statistical tools such as simple regression equations to complex systems such as artificial intelligence models. Africa’s inability to simulate a climate mycotoxin risk model in the past has been attributed to insufficient climate or AF contamination data. Recently, however, advancement in technologies including artificial intelligence modelling has bridged this gap, as climate risk scenarios can now be correctly predicted from missing and unbalanced data.

Gradient boosting and bayesian network machine learning models predict aflatoxin and fumonisin contamination of maize in Illinois – First USA case study

“…We chose the state of Illinois as a first case study because of the availability of extensive historical data-set . Models described herein were developed highlighting three elements from previous studies: (1) each of the non-USA based models (mainly European) were optimized for a determined geographical area considering climate variables ( Battilani et al, 2016 ; Liu et al, 2021 ; Nji et al, 2022 ), for example, temperature, precipitation, and other factors specific to the location. (2) The modeling tools for Aspergillus mainly had a mechanistic basis that included biological relationships of the fungus with the environment and the plant host.…”

May phytophenolics alleviate aflatoxins-induced health challenges? A holistic insight on current landscape and future prospects

“…The literature suggests that pest-infested crops are prone to AFs contaminants ( 63 ). Therefore, predicting the exact roles of GCC on the prevalence of AFs relies the development of accurate models to estimate the future damages of AFs under GCC ( 64 ). Presently, mechanistic ( 65 ), empirical, and hybrid models in predicting future economic costs of AFs occurrence have been developed in Australia, the USA and some European countries ( 64 ) while the lack of comprehensive predictive models in less developed countries (e.g., Africa, Middle-East, Latin America) might decrease the effectiveness of such estimations in preventing future AFs production ( 64 , 66 ).…”

“…Therefore, recruiting predictive models to simulate the occurrence of AFs requires an in-depth knowledge of future AFP-GCC interactions ( 67 ) to know where and how these mycotoxins will be emerged in the target production/storage sites ( 64 , 66 ), which future crops are more susceptible to AFs, and ultimately which future country-specific regulations must be taken into consideration in order to better elimination of AFs production. Indeed, in addressing modeling of future APF-GCC interactions, it is also meritorious to highlight this note that the contemporaneous predictive studies have been validated in limited geographical regions, therefore it is imperative to conduct large-scale multinational investigations for better understanding of GCC impacts on future APF mycoflora and global pattern of AFs distribution ( 68 ).…”

“…The co-occurrence of GCC-associated risk factors offering synergistic effects on human health and the onset of nCDs ( 83 , 84 ). Therefore, due to the complexity of interactions between GCC/exposure to AFs (and other emerging mycotoxins) ( 85 ), and the onset of nCDs ( 86 ), it is obligatory to establish country-specific regulations to deal with the upcoming challenges ( 64 ) and decrease the global burden of incurable human diseases. While only 2% of global health funds allocated to treat these diseases, the estimations predicted that the number of people affected by nCDs have dramatically been increased over the past decades ( 81 , 87 ).…”

Efficacy Assessment of Inhibitory Fungal Concoctions Against Mycotoxin Fungi Affecting Maize Grain Quality in Western Kenya

“…Mycotoxins exacerbate maize yield losses in Kenya through food contamination (Nji et al, 2022). The most profiled mycotoxins in Kenyan maize include aflatoxins, ochratoxins, fumonisin, patulin, penicillic acid and zearalenone (Kagot et al, 2022;Wafula et al, 2022).…”