Afghanistan’s Neo-Taliban Puzzle

Abstract

This article examines the emergence of the neo-Taliban and its encroachment in non-Pashtun regions after the debacle of the old Taliban following the post 9/11 US-led NATO intervention in Afghanistan. It seeks to understand what aspirations drive the neo-Taliban and how they have reframed their ideology after 2001, leading to growing acceptance of a future role for the neo-Taliban in Afghanistan, while foreign-led counterinsurgency seems to fail. The article argues that due to the extremely fractious nature and continuing precariousness of the Afghan political climate, the neo-Taliban could emerge as a formidable power, with an agenda of bringing peace and stability to the entire ‘Af-Pak’ region. However, to what extent the neo-Taliban may be successful in countering widely held perceptions that it is a Pashtun nationalist movement, antagonistic to women, dissent and minorities, remains part of the challenging puzzle, as much for analysts as for the movement itself, which is not trusted in terms of delivering good governance in Afghanistan.

Geopolitical Dynamics in the Afghanistan–India–Pakistan Triangle

“…Afghanistan’s—the third state in the triangle—strategic location as a landlocked country at the crossroads of Central Asia, Iran, India and China has made it a significant geopolitical player. At certain times, ‘Afghanistan has been more or less unwillingly enmeshed in other countries’ politics, competing ideologies and strategic battles; while at other moments it merely served as a corridor through which armies marched’ (Wani, 2021, p. 220). The country has experienced military intervention and occupation by the British (twice in the nineteenth century), the Soviet Union (in the 1980s) and the United States (since late 2001) (Saikal, 2014), and this ended only in October 2021.…”

“…Their continuing enmity lies at the heart of both states’ policy towards Afghanistan, which does not bode well for prospects of peace, stability and security in the sub-region. Retrogressive forces, including the Taliban, have been direct and immediate beneficiaries of this ineffectiveness and incompetence (Wani, 2021). After the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and Russia have considerable opportunities to strengthen their position in Afghanistan and present themselves as viable or even desirable alternative international partners (Hill, 2021; Perlez, 2021).…”

India-Afghanistan Relations in Changing Regional Geopolitics

“…Over the past few decades, Afghanistan underwent a series of political transformations with considerable geopolitical ramifications for the region and beyond (Wani, 2021). The power vacuum left by the contested US involvement and subsequent withdrawal from Afghanistan (Connah, 2021) set the ground for new geopolitical tussles over Afghanistan (Gramer & Detsch, 2021).…”

“…The power vacuum left by the contested US involvement and subsequent withdrawal from Afghanistan (Connah, 2021) set the ground for new geopolitical tussles over Afghanistan (Gramer & Detsch, 2021). Previously, the region served as a theatre of conflict between the Russian and British Empires in the nineteenth century, known as the Great Game (Abbas, 2014; Wani, 2021). Afghanistan and Central Asia are currently witnessing a New Great Game, focused on intense competition over the abundance of hydrocarbons and other natural resources in the region (Pizzolo & Carteny, 2022: 85–7).…”