Affordability with an Expiration Date: A Microsimulation for Estimating the Demographic Changes Caused by Deregulation of Assisted Housing

Abstract

This research turns the spotlight to the deregulation of once publicly funded affordable housing. Through a microsimulation that follows the conversion from affordable to market-rate units on Roosevelt Island New York, we estimate the expected demographic changes each year between 1976 and 2070. The simulation combines information from the American Community Survey, the island's masterplan, the privatization agreements, and interviews with residents, to produce interactive graphs at three urban scales: the neighborhood, the project, and the building. We found that while the households of market-rate units are gradually becoming younger and more affluent, the households of affordable units are becoming older and more impoverished. Despite an individual agreement for each building, the demographic changes are similar, and that, those changes will affect low-income buildings first. Moreover, upon expiration, 30 percent of the existing protected tenants will be over 65 and at risk of being displaced. The simulation is available at http://ridigitaltwin.pythonanywhere.com/ .