Affective Forecasting in Health Psychology

Martin, Shannon M.; Gerhart, James; Rochefort, Catherine; Perry, Laura M.; Hoerger, Michael

doi:10.1002/9781119057840.ch163

Cited by 8 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Surgeons overestimated patients' functional status on average. These findings are consistent with the behavioral economics literature showing that predictions about the impact of changing life circumstances on quality of life are often prone to error 21–24 . In advanced cancer, people could overestimate future quality of life, consistent with the optimism in the survival prediction literature, 5–7,12 though some research on community samples suggests a bias toward underestimating the quality of life of the seriously ill 21–24 .…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…These findings are consistent with the behavioral economics literature showing that predictions about the impact of changing life circumstances on quality of life are often prone to error. [21][22][23][24] In advanced cancer, people could overestimate future quality of life, consistent with the optimism in the survival prediction literature, [5][6][7]12 though some research on community samples suggests a bias toward underestimating the quality of life of the seriously ill. [21][22][23][24] Behavioral research mostly in non-patient samples suggests that these predictions routinely guide decision making. 21,25 Within the oncology literature, views about the patient's impending quality of life could affect the perceived tolerance to treatments 26,27 and, thus, the overall intensity of end-of-life care pursued as well as disrupt caregiver bereavement when the patient's disease course mismatches expectations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…Moreover, when caregivers were more negative in their predictions, patients had less intensive disease‐focused end‐of‐life care, and caregivers had worse bereavement outcomes (Tables 2 and 3). Findings are novel in that they extend upon behavioral research overwhelmingly in non‐patient samples suggesting that tacit or explicit predictions related to quality of life often drive decision making 21–25 . This study suggests that when discussing prognosis clinicians should attend to caregivers' quality‐of‐life predictions and their implications for end‐of‐life care and bereavement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Findings are novel in that they extend upon behavioral research overwhelmingly in non-patient samples suggesting that tacit or explicit predictions related to quality of life often drive decision making. [21][22][23][24][25] This study suggests that when discussing prognosis clinicians should attend to caregivers' quality-of-life predictions and their implications for end-of-life care and bereavement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…This investigation is the first to examine the accuracy of quality‐of‐life predictions in advanced cancer. Prior studies suggest that non‐patients often, though not always, underestimate the quality of life experienced by people with chronic or disabling conditions due to overlooking emotional and physical adaptation strategies 21–24 . When caregivers were more negative about patients' future quality of life, and thus typically less accurate, patients were less likely to receive chemotherapy or have ED/inpatient visits in the 30 days before death, and caregivers had worse bereavement outcomes, including depression, anxiety, prolonged grief, and diminished purpose in life.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Patient, caregiver, and oncologist predictions of quality of life in advanced cancer: Accuracy and associations with end‐of‐life care and caregiver bereavement

et al. 2022

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Background Informed treatment decision‐making necessitates accurate prognostication, including predictions about quality of life. Aims We examined whether oncologists, patients with advanced cancer, and caregivers accurately predict patients’ future quality of life and whether these predictions are prospectively associated with end‐of‐life care and bereavement. Materials & Methods We conducted secondary analyses of clinical trial data. Patients with advanced cancer (n = 156), caregivers (n = 156), and oncologists (n = 38) predicted patient quality of life 3 months into the future. Patients subsequently rated their quality of life 3 months later. Medical record data documented chemotherapy and emergency department (ED)/inpatient visits in the 30 days before death (n = 79 decedents). Caregivers self‐reported on depression, anxiety, grief, purpose, and regret 7‐months post‐mortem. In mixed‐effects models, patient, caregiver, and oncologist quality‐of‐life predictions at study entry were used to predict end‐of‐life care and caregiver outcomes, controlling for patients’ quality of life at 3‐month follow‐up, demographic and clinical characteristics, and nesting within oncologists. Results Caregivers (P < 0.0001) and oncologists (P = 0.001) predicted lower quality of life than what patients actually experienced. Among decedents, 24.0% received chemotherapy and 54.5% had an ED/inpatient visit. When caregivers’ predictions were more negative, patients were less likely to receive chemotherapy (P = 0.028) or have an ED/inpatient visit (P = 0.033), and caregivers reported worse depression (P = 0.002), anxiety (P = 0.019), and grief (P = 0.028) and less purpose in life (P < 0.001) 7‐months post‐mortem. Conclusion When caregivers have more negative expectations about patients’ quality of life, patients receive less intensive end‐of‐life care, and caregivers report worse bereavement outcomes.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Patient, caregiver, and oncologist predictions of quality of life in advanced cancer: Accuracy and associations with end‐of‐life care and caregiver bereavement

et al. 2022

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Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk

et al. 2022

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Affective forecasting in Parkinson’s disease

Coundouris

Suddendorf

Lehn

2022

J Int Neuropsychol Soc

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Objectives: While emotional responses experienced in-the-moment appear to remain intact in Parkinson’s disease (PD), no study has tested whether this extends to the prediction of future emotional responses. The present study aimed to provide the first assessment of affective forecasting capacity in this cohort. Methods: A positively and negatively valenced affective forecasting task and broader clinical battery were completed by a PD group (ns = 28 and 37, respectively) and a demographically matched neurotypical control group (ns = 38 and 39, respectively). Results: No group differences emerged on the two tasks, with the two groups underestimating their level of happiness and overestimating their level of negative affect to a similar degree. Affective forecasting error scores were unrelated to clinical characteristics. Conclusions: Given that affective forecasting relies on self-projection into the future, a skill shown to often be disrupted in this cohort, impairments were expected. However, this study provides initial evidence that this may not be the case. These findings are potentially important given that how we think about and envisage the future affectively is a major determinant of goal-directed behavior. Further work is now needed to establish whether these findings are robust and generalize to other types of affective stimuli.

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Affective Forecasting in Health Psychology

Cited by 8 publications

References 10 publications

Patient, caregiver, and oncologist predictions of quality of life in advanced cancer: Accuracy and associations with end‐of‐life care and caregiver bereavement

Patient, caregiver, and oncologist predictions of quality of life in advanced cancer: Accuracy and associations with end‐of‐life care and caregiver bereavement

Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk

Affective forecasting in Parkinson’s disease

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