Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near‐term climate under RCP 2.6

Chalmers, N.; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Hawkins, Ed; Sutton, Rowan; Wilcox, Laura

doi:10.1029/2012gl052848

Cited by 46 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…1), and this is reflected in the lack of a clear difference in impact, for a given Table 3). The differences between these three RCPs for a given model in 2050 reflect the effects of both year-to-year climatic variability on 30-year mean climate and the different aerosol scenarios: Chalmers et al (2012) show that for the HadGEM2-ES model, for example, average temperature increase is greater under RCP2.6 than under RCP4.5 to at least 2040 because of the substantial reductions in aerosols, and that the spatial pattern of change in climate is different. Impacts under RCP8.5 in 2050 are typically larger than those under the other RCPs-but not always.…”

Section: Indicators Of Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

2013

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This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways -RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways -SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the 'middle-of-theroad' SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3,400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24 %, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16 %. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in 'actual' impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

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Section: Indicators Of Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

2013

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“…The effect of past and future changes in emissions on aerosols and their associated climate impacts is uncertain (Penner et al, 2010;Chalmers et al, 2012). In addition, emission inventories of aerosols and their precursor species account for large uncertainty in models (de Meij et al, 2006).…”

Section: S T Turnock Et Al: Modelled and Observed Changes In Europmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

et al. 2015

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Abstract. Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry-climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry-climate model for the period 1960-2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978-2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978(SPM, -1998

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“…They stated that regional model in impact assessment studies need to be conducted carefully, because models with small and large biases can produce substantially different results. This explains our consideration of all projected climates by RCA, driven by different GCMs, in our analysis, while keeping in mind the high level of uncertainty associated with the response of West Africa climate to anthropogenic GHG emissions [46] [47] [50].…”

Section: Far Termmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scale Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature over West Africa Using SMHI-RCA Driven by GCMs under RCP8.5

Sarr¹

2017

AJCC

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In this paper, we use simulations from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) regional climate model (RCM) version 3.5 (SMHI-RCA3.5) following a multi-GCM boundary forcing approach. The model is run at a horizontal resolution of 50 km on the CORDEX-AFRICA domain. Key characteristics of precipitation, mean temperature and its extremes (minimum and maximum temperature) have been investigated over West Africa and on 3 designed sub-domains, the Sahel (SAH), the Senegal-Gambia ( The regional climate model RCA, forced by the reanalysis ERA-Interim, 6 CMIP5 GCMs and their ensemble, reproduces realistically the climatology of precipitation and temperatures over West Africa. Compared to observed datasets GPCP for precipitation and CRU for temperature, the ensemble outperforms both other GCMs and the verification model (ERA-Interim). The major biases in precipitation are the early onset over the Sahel and the little dry season (LDS), from mid-July to mid-September over the Gulf of Guinea, and a few models either overestimate and/or reflect rather poorly. The strong warming in extreme temperatures (minimum and maximum) combined with the drying mainly over Western Sahel (SEN) found in this study will very likely impact notably a vital sector like agriculture, both during the near and far terms.

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Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near‐term climate under RCP 2.6

Cited by 46 publications

References 15 publications

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

Multi-Scale Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature over West Africa Using SMHI-RCA Driven by GCMs under RCP8.5

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