Aerosol and cloud effects on solar brightening and the recent rapid warming

Ruckstuhl, Christian; Philipona, Rolf; Behrens, Klaus; Coen, Martine Collaud; Dürr, Bruno; Heimo, Alain; Mätzler, Christian; Nyeki, S.; Ohmura, Atsumu; Vuilleumier, Laurent; Weller, Michael G.; Wehrli, Christoph; Zelenka, A.

doi:10.1029/2008gl034228

Cited by 199 publications

(255 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(26 reference statements)

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“…1a). The change in SAT during the recent 16 years (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011) relative to the early period 1964-1993 ranges from 0.93 to 1.10 °C from four data sets, consistent with previous studies (Ruckstuhl et al 2008;Philipona et al 2009;van Oldenborgh et al 2009). The rapid summer mean warming over Western Europe was also accompanied by changes in temperature extremes.…”

Section: Observed Changes In Summer Mean Temperature and Temperature supporting

confidence: 78%

“…12a) show a decrease of ~0.2-0.4 over Western Europe which is about 40-80 % decrease relative to the simulation for the period 1964-1993. The magnitude of the decrease in model simulated sulphate AOD is similar to observed changes from six locations over Europe (Ruckstuhl et al 2008). The decrease in AAer precursor emissions over Europe induces a significant local warming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions (e.g., Twomey 1977;Rosenfeld et al 2008;Nabat et al 2014;.…”

Section: Response To the Direct Impact Of Changes In Aaer Precursor Esupporting

confidence: 58%

“…Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. In the last few decades, Europe has warmed not only faster than the global average, but also faster than expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases (Ruckstuhl et al 2008;Philipona et al 2009;van Oldenborgh et al 2009). With the warming, Europe experienced record-breaking heat waves and extreme temperatures that imposed disastrous impacts on individuals, and society (Stott et al 2004;Fischer and Schär 2010;Barriopedro et al 2011;Christidis et al 2011Christidis et al , 2012Hegerl et al 2011;Rahmstorf and Coumou 2011;Hoerling et al 2012;Schubert et al Abstract Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

2016

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frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.

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Section: Observed Changes In Summer Mean Temperature and Temperature supporting

confidence: 78%

Section: Response To the Direct Impact Of Changes In Aaer Precursor Esupporting

confidence: 58%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

2016

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“…Kumar et al (2013) found that among 22 climate models, those thatand inferred that improved air quality has led to a strong increase in JJA SWdn there. The Eshel (2016) result is similar to European studies that have tied aerosol reductions to enhanced SWdn (Philipona et al, 2009;Ruckstuhl et al, 2008). Tosca et al (2017) compared the observed +0.54 ± 0.52 K decade −1 summertime temperature trend in the southeast US to the −0.05 decade −1 satellite retrieved AOD trend.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 69%

Aerosol trends as a potential driver of regional climate in the central United States: evidence from observations

et al. 2017

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Abstract. In situ surface observations show that downward surface solar radiation (SWdn) over the central and southeastern United States (US) has increased by 0.58-1.0 Wm −2 a −1 over the 2000-2014 time frame, simultaneously with reductions in US aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 3.3-5.0 × 10 −3 a −1 . Establishing a link between these two trends, however, is challenging due to complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, and radiation. Here we investigate the clear-sky aerosol-radiation effects of decreasing US aerosols on SWdn and other surface variables by applying a one-dimensional radiative transfer to 2000-2014 measurements of AOD at two Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites in the central and southeastern United States. Observations characterized as "clear-sky" may in fact include the effects of thin cirrus clouds, and we consider these effects by imposing satellite data from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) into the radiative transfer model. The model predicts that 2000-2014 trends in aerosols may have driven clear-sky SWdn trends of +1.35 Wm −2 a −1 at Goodwin Creek, MS, and +0.93 Wm −2 a −1 at Bondville, IL. While these results are consistent in sign with observed trends, a cross-validated multivariate regression analysis shows that AOD reproduces 20-26 % of the seasonal (June-September, JJAS) variability in clear-sky direct and diffuse SWdn at Bondville, IL, but none of the JJAS variability at Goodwin Creek, MS. Using in situ soil and surface flux measurements from the Ameriflux network and Illinois Climate Network (ICN) together with assimilated meteorology from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), we find that sunnier summers tend to coincide with increased surface air temperature and soil moisture deficits in the central US. The 1990-2015 trends in the NLDAS SWdn over the central US are also of a similar magnitude to our modeled 2000-2014 clear-sky trends. Taken together, these results suggest that climate and regional hydrology in the central US are sensitive to the recent reductions in aerosol concentrations. Our work has implications for severely polluted regions outside the US, where improvements in air quality due to reductions in the aerosol burden could inadvertently pose an enhanced climate risk.

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“…The total column ozone amount is particularly important as ozone is the dominant atmospheric absorber of UV-B and UV-C radiation (UNEP 1998). Furthermore, UV doses depend strongly on aerosol loading (e.g., Kazadzis et al 2007;Reuder and Schwander 1999;Ruckstuhl et al 2008), surface albedo (e.g., Blumthaler and Ambach 1988), and altitude (e.g., Blumthaler et al 1997;Schmucki and Philipona 2002). Cloudiness often masks the influence of TCO changes on UV radiation and may, depending on cloud type and amount, cancel, reduce, or enhance UV signals (e.g., Bais et al 1993;Feister et al 2015;Glandorf et al 2005;Rieder et al 2010c;Seckmeyer et al 1996).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of low ozone episodes on erythemal UV-B radiation in Austria

Schwarz

Baumgartner

Pietsch

et al. 2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study investigates the influence of low ozone episodes on UV-B radiation in Austria during the period 1999 to 2015. To this aim observations of total column ozone (TCO) in the Greater Alpine Region (Arosa, Switzerland; Hohenpeissenberg, Germany; Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic; Sonnblick, Austria), and erythemal UV-B radiation, available from 12 sites of the Austrian UV-B monitoring network, are analyzed. As previous definitions for low ozone episodes are not particularly suited to investigate effects on UV radiation, a novel threshold approach-considering anomalies-is developed to provide a joint framework for the analysis of extremes. TCO and UV extremes are negatively correlated, although modulating effects of sunshine duration impact the robustness of the statistical relationship. Therefore, information on relative sunshine duration (SD rel ), available at (or nearby) UV-B monitoring sites, is included as explanatory variable in the analysis. The joint analysis of anomalies of both UV index (UVI) and total ozone (ΔUVI, ΔTCO) and SD rel across sites shows that more than 65% of observations with strongly negative ozone anomalies (ΔTCO < −1) led to positive UVI anomalies. Considering only days with strongly positive UVI anomaly (ΔUVI > 1), we find (across all sites) that about 90% correspond to negative ΔTCO. The remaining 10% of days occurred during fair weather conditions (SD rel ≥ 80%) explaining the appearance of ΔUVI > 1 despite positive TCO anomalies. Further, we introduce an anomaly amplification factor (AAF), which quantifies the expected change of the ΔUVI for a given change in ΔTCO.

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Aerosol and cloud effects on solar brightening and the recent rapid warming

Cited by 199 publications

References 26 publications

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Aerosol trends as a potential driver of regional climate in the central United States: evidence from observations

Influence of low ozone episodes on erythemal UV-B radiation in Austria

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