Aeolus winds impact on volcanic ash early warning systems for aviation

Abstract

Forecasting volcanic ash atmospheric pathways is of utmost importance for aviation. Volcanic ash can interfere with aircraft navigational instruments and can damage engine parts. Early warning systems, activated after volcanic eruptions can alleviate the impacts on aviation by providing forecasts of the volcanic ash plume dispersion. The quality of these short-term forecasts is subject to the accuracy of the meteorological wind fields used for the initialization of regional models. Here, we use wind profiling data from the first high spectral resolution lidar in space, Aeolus, to examine the impact of measured wind fields on regional NWP and subsequent volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, focusing on the case of Etna’s eruption on March 2021. The results from this case study demonstrate a significant improvement of the volcanic ash simulation when using Aeolus-assimilated meteorological fields, with differences in wind speed reaching up to 8 m/s when compared to the control run. When comparing the volcanic ash forecast profiles with downwind surface-based aerosol lidar observations, the modeled field is consistent with the measurements only when Aeolus winds are assimilated. This result clearly demonstrates the potential of Aeolus and highlights the necessity of future wind profiling satellite missions for improving volcanic ash forecasting and hence aviation safety.

Monitoring Volcanic Plumes and Clouds Using Remote Sensing: A Systematic Review

“…The absence of research addressing the impact of wind shear on volcanic cloud dispersion, and the potential for more effective identification of volcanic clouds from atmospheric clouds, was identified as a gap. It is known that the transport of volcanic particles is largely influenced by winds within the troposphere and/or stratosphere, with a particular emphasis on vertical wind shear [140,141]. Wind shear has been demonstrated to enhance the accuracy of simulations when it is taken into account [142].…”

Inversion Techniques on Etna’s Volcanic Emissions and the Impact of Aeolus on Quantitative Dispersion Modeling

“…The lava fountain ceased after 12:30 UTC on the 12 March 2021. During the peak phase of the eruption, the ash column reached approximately 10 km altitude (Figure 1a) and drifted eastwards due to the westerly winds that were dominant over the Eastern Mediterranean (Figure 1b) [3,8,9]. According to the Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA) messages, the volcano observatory issued a RED warning alert, from 06:18 to 08:44 UTC, on the 12 March 2021, when the strongest ash emission was observed, while an ORANGE alert was issued at 12:30 UTC when the lava fountain ceased and the volcanic ash plume was dispersed in the atmosphere.…”

“…This methodology estimates sourcereceptor relationships (SRR) from the FLEXPART (flexible particle dispersion) model [5][6][7] constrained by ground-based lidar measurements of ash concentration. Moreover, we examine the impact of data assimilation of wind Aeolus profiles in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological model in comparison to the estimation of the emission rates of volcanic particles [8]. In particular, how the mass rates, the vertical emission distribution, and the resulting forecasts are affected when initiated by the control and assimilated wind fields, respectively.…”

“…Our results are efficient for real-time application and could supply ash forecasting models with an accurate estimation of the mass rate and the vertical emission distribution of fine ash particles emitted during explosive volcanic eruptions. Improved forecasts would then allow for more effective emergency preparedness for aviation to ensure safety during volcanic eruptions [8].…”

The Contribution of Aeolus Wind Observations to ECMWF Sea Surface Wind Forecasts

“…The evaluations demonstrated that with Aeolus data assimilation, the wind vector forecasts are improved by up to 4%, particularly in the upper troposphere and/or lower stratosphere over the tropics and polar regions (Garrett et al., 2022; Laroche & St‐James, 2022; Pourret et al., 2022; Rennie et al., 2021). In addition, Aeolus winds benefit forecasts for weather and climate events, such as for tropical cyclone tracks in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins, West African Monsoon circulation, and volcanic ash plume dispersion (Amiridis et al., 2023; Borne et al., 2023; Garrett et al., 2022).…”