Advancing the State of Policy Delphi Practice: A Systematic Review Evaluating Methodological Evolution, Innovation, and Opportunities

Loë, Rob C. de; Melnychuk, Natalya; Murray, Daniel P.; Plummer, Ryan

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.009

Cited by 160 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…7 The Delphi method was developed at the RAND Corporation in the 1950's for predicting bombing requirements in a cold-war conflict with the USSR [12]. Surveys of the Delphi method are provided by [13], [36] and [37], while [29] review the judgmental forecasting approach.…”

Section: Discussion and A Research Agendamentioning

confidence: 99%

The socio-economic impact of a breakthrough in the particle accelerators’ technology: A research agenda

Florio

Bastianin

Castelnovo

2018

Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A:

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Preliminary evidence on the long-run trajectory of the accelerator industry suggests that it may be close to the maturity phase of its cycle. If this is the case, how can we measure the benefits of an uncertain breakthrough in acceleration technology? Who are the main stakeholders interested by such a breakthrough? We identify these subjects and sketch some avenues for answering these questions.We thus present a model for the social Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of research infrastructures and illustrate the results of its implementation for assessing the benefits of accelerators in basic science and hadrontherapy. Lastly, we move from the social CBA of single research infrastructures to modeling a major change in the accelerator technology and hence in the industry. A research agenda on the potential impacts of a technological breakthrough is presented.

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Section: Discussion and A Research Agendamentioning

confidence: 99%

The socio-economic impact of a breakthrough in the particle accelerators’ technology: A research agenda

Florio

Bastianin

Castelnovo

2018

Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section A:

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“…Though the Delphi process is considered to be more reliable than a single survey, the method has been critiqued for group pressure, rather than knowledge development, leading to consensus in repeated surveys (Woudenberg, 1991). However, the Delphi approach is also roundly defended, especially in relation to complex issues (de Loë et al, 2016) and topics where information is not easy to come by Landeta (2006). Also, in other fields where surveys are used, giving respondents time to reflect, discuss and gather information is seen as a way to secure responses that are more reliable (MacMillan et al, 2006).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expert Assessment of Risks Posed by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities to Ecosystem Services in the Deep North Atlantic

et al. 2019

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Sustainable development of the ocean is a central policy objective in Europe through the Blue Growth Strategy and globally through parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity. Achieving sustainable exploitation of deep sea resources is challenged due to the huge uncertainty around the many risks posed by human activities on these remote ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. We used a Delphi approach, an iterative expert-based survey process, to assess risks to ecosystem services in the North Atlantic Ocean from climate change (water temperature and ocean acidification), the blue economy (fishing, pollution, oil and gas activities, deep seabed mining, maritime and coastal tourism and blue biotechnology), and their cumulative effects. Ecosystem services from the deep sea, identified through the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment framework, were presented in an expert survey to assess the impacts of human drivers on these services. The results from this initial survey were analyzed and then presented in a second survey. The final results, based on 55 expert responses, indicated that pollution and temperature change each pose a high risk to more than 28% of deepsea ecosystem services, whilst ocean acidification, and fisheries both pose a high risk to more than 19% of the deep-sea ecosystem services. Services considered to be most at risk of being impacted by anthropogenic activities were biodiversity and habitat as supporting services, biodiversity as a cultural service, and fish and shellfish as provisioning services. Tourism and blue biotechnology were not seen to cause serious risk to any of the ecosystem services. The negative impacts from temperature change, ocean acidification, fishing, pollution, and oil and gas activities were deemed to be largely more probable than their positive impacts. These results expand our knowledge of how a broad set of deep-sea ecosystem services are impacted by human activities. Furthermore, the study provides input in relation to future priorities regarding research in the Atlantic deep sea.

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“…This approach, while driven by casting a wide net in order to capture the greatest diversity of viewpoints, still allows for identifying areas of (differing levels of ) agreement among expert communities. Research guidelines [30][31][32] have been useful to guide the conduct of the Delphi study, especially, in structuring the first round, defining the sample expertise, collecting the data and applying ethical considerations. Considering that the two principal investigators were also research participants, the presence of the third researcher allowed to preserve a degree of panelist anonymity and ensure the Delphi process was led by all panelists' views.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early career researchers’ perspectives and roles in patient-oriented research

et al. 2018

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Patient-oriented research (POR) has received increasing attention in recent years. In this approach, patients' experiential knowledge, derived from their experiences of living with a condition or illness and of interacting with the healthcare system, is recognized, valued, and seen as complementary to scientific knowledge. Early career researchers (ECRs) are the next generation of researchers, but little is known about how they perceive POR. In this study, ECRs were invited to reflect on what POR is, how patients can best contribute to research, and ECRs' own role in developing POR. Using a technique designed to collect expert opinions and find consensus-the Delphi method-a panel of 16 ECRs responded, in three rounds, to three questionnaires, with the second and third being built on responses to the preceding ones. Based on their understanding, the panelists agreed that the most important element in defining POR would be valuing, mobilizing, and legitimizing the experiential knowledge of patients who live with a particular health condition. Panelists considered patients to be integral members of the research team, but were less convinced that they should be considered co-researchers. The panelists saw themselves as taking part in developing POR by sharing information, teaching, and encouraging POR among their peers, as well as by participating actively in organizations interested in POR. This is the first study to examine the perspectives of ECRs, who, along with many others, have an important role in supporting the ongoing development of POR so that it becomes more widely adopted.

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Advancing the State of Policy Delphi Practice: A Systematic Review Evaluating Methodological Evolution, Innovation, and Opportunities

Cited by 160 publications

References 50 publications

The socio-economic impact of a breakthrough in the particle accelerators’ technology: A research agenda

The socio-economic impact of a breakthrough in the particle accelerators’ technology: A research agenda

Expert Assessment of Risks Posed by Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities to Ecosystem Services in the Deep North Atlantic

Early career researchers’ perspectives and roles in patient-oriented research

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