Advancing the Evidence Base of Future Warming Impacts on Human Mobility in African Drylands

Abstract

In African drylands, migration is already being altered by changes in climate with uncertain outcomes under a 1.5° warming • Impacts in climate-sensitive sectors relying on migrants differ greatly, calling for an advancement of available evidence on regional scale • A systems approach can address the urgent policy challenges regarding climate-induced human mobility

Contextualizing Climate Change Impacts on Human Mobility in African Drylands

“…Climate change is expected to have major impacts on the African continent (James & Washington, 2013;Müller et al, 2014). As documented by (Thalheimer, Williams, et al (2021), many parts of Africa have witnessed a significant warming trend over the recent decades with an increased frequency, intensity and duration of temperature-related extreme events and heatwaves (IPCC, 2018;Rohat et al, 2019). Increased levels of aridity and drought have been observed in some regions of the continent, in particular in Southern and in parts of Eastern Africa.…”

“…Based on the IPCC 1.5SR and recent findings from the literature, Thalheimer, Williams, et al. (2021) discuss six impact sectors that will be particularly affected by climate change and highlight implications for mobility. These include impacts on economies, livelihoods and poverty, food security, health, urban areas, and cascading risks.…”

“…Climate change will have major impacts on cities. Heat waves exert a particularly strong effect in urban environments due to urban heat island effects, contributing to increased heat‐related morbidity and mortality in densely populated areas (Thalheimer, Williams, et al., 2021). While cities are often the destination of those forced to leave their homes due to climate change, they are at the same time hotspots for climate‐induced displacements (IDMC, 2021a).…”

“…In their recent article published in Earth's Future, Thalheimer, Williams, et al. (2021) combine insights from the climate science and impact literature, including findings from the IPCC SR1.5 report, with recent evidence on climate mobility to better understand the consequences of global warming for migration and displacement. In their assessment, they focus on drylands in Africa, a region that is both highly exposed and vulnerable to climate risks due to its high dependency on agricultural livelihoods and limited adaptive capacities.…”

Multidimensional Food Security Nexus in Drylands under the Slow Onset Effects of Climate Change

“…What steps should be taken to promote food security in drylands? To sustain drylands, strengthen the livelihoods of their populations, and prevent a global food supply crisis in the future, an effective governance framework is needed that simultaneously deals with the nexus of several dimensions of food security [4,101]. First, securing land tenure rights for local communities is expected to strengthen local food production, and improve the status of human rights [102].…”