Advancing Fifth Percentile Hazard Concentration Estimation Using Toxicity-Normalized Species Sensitivity Distributions

Abstract

The species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is an internationally accepted approach to hazard estimation using the probability distribution of toxicity values that is representative of the sensitivity of a group of species to a chemical. Application of SSDs in ecological risk assessment has been limited by insufficient taxonomic diversity of species to estimate a statistically robust fifth percentile hazard concentration (HC5). We used the toxicity-normalized SSD (SSDn) approach, (Lambert, F. N.; Raimondo, S.; Barron, M. G. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2022, 56, 8278–8289), modified to include all possible normalizing species, to estimate HC5 values for acute toxicity data for groups of carbamate and organophosphorous insecticides. We computed mean and variance of single chemical HC5 values for each chemical using leave-one-out (LOO) variance estimation and compared them to SSDn and conventionally estimated HC5 values. SSDn-estimated HC5 values showed low uncertainty and high accuracy compared to single-chemical SSDs when including all possible combinations of normalizing species within the chemical-taxa grouping (carbamate-all species, carbamate-fish, organophosphate-fish, and organophosphate-invertebrate). The SSDn approach is recommended for estimating HC5 values for compounds with insufficient species diversity for HC5 computation or high uncertainty in estimated single-chemical HC5 values. Furthermore, the LOO variance approach provides SSD practitioners with a simple computational method to estimate confidence intervals around an HC5 estimate that is nearly identical to the conventionally estimated HC5.