Advances in integrating different models assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture

Abstract

The impact of climate change on the agricultural sector is causing considerable concern worldwide. Using modelling and simulation to analyse the impact of and ways to mitigate climate change is challenging. However, over the last few decades modelling approaches have evolved to tackle this problem. This chapter presents the various advances of integrating different models that assess the effects of climate change on agriculture. Based on an ‘ideal’ modelling archetype, we discuss different solutions such as: i) a complete and balanced integration of models; ii) coupling sub-models; iii) integrating new knowledge and facilitating inter-operability; iv) integrating behaviours and decision-making to adapt to climate change; v) incorporating inter- and intra-species diversity into models; vi) from white to black box models and vii) ensemble modelling. The chapter includes examples of all these solutions. The last section explains why these modelling solutions may be insufficient and discusses future trends in modelling.