Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach

Tonnang, Henri E. Z.; Hervé, Bisseleua; Biber‐Freudenberger, Lisa; Salifu, Daisy; Subramanian, Sevgan; Ngowi, Valentine B.; Guimapi, Ritter Y. A.; Bruce, Anani Y.; Kakmeni, F. M. Moukam; Affognon, Hippolyte; Niassy, Saliou; Landmann, Tobias; Ndjomatchoua, Frank T.; Pedro, Sansao A.; Johansson, Tino; Tanga, Chrysantus M.; Nana, Paulin; Fiaboe, K.M.; Mohamed, Samira F.; Maniania, Nguya K.; Nedorezov, L. V.; Ekesi, Sunday; Borgemeister, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.03.015

Cited by 89 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 99 publications

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“…Diet can affect temperature tolerances, and the temperature threshold for development was several degrees lower when fall armyworms were fed leaves from early vegetative maize plants then when fed leaves from late vegetative or reproductive plants 38 (Supplementary Table S1). Environmental conditions can alter the impacts of biopesticides, and infection rates of diseases and natural enemies that control pests, including in fall armyworm 3,39,40 . Predictions of range, abundance, impacts, and the outcomes of Integrated Pest Management strategies would therefore benefit from a better understanding of the relationship between strains, diet, pesticide effectiveness and environmental limits on distributions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Early

González‐Moreno²,

Murphy³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20-50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe damage to livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa, and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworm’s year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworm’s year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Early

González‐Moreno²,

Murphy³

et al. 2018

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As more information becames available, climate models are becoming increasingly more valuable to assist in the prediction of habitat suitability for invasive species. Although these models prove valuable, the establishment of a suitable model is not a straightforward process (Newbery, Qi, & Fitt,; Macfadyen & Kriticos, ; Tonnang et al, ; Ward & Masters, ) as several factors come into play during the development, selection/choice, and application of these models. Also, the ability of the developed model to accurately predict future invasions is highly reliant on accurate historical data and a good understanding of the factors that determine settlement of the targeted species.…”

Section: Determinants Of Invasivenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many of these can be species specific, while other factors relate to the resource/niche availability (Ward & Masters, ; Wan and Yan, 2016). Hence, the strong notion toward making use of a whole system approach during the development of such a model as was recently reviewed (Tonnang et al, ).…”

Section: Determinants Of Invasivenessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining biotechnological solutions for insect control in sub‐Saharan Africa

Botha

Kunert

Malinga

et al. 2019

Food and Energy Security

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Africa is burdened by food insecurity with nearly a billion people suffering from starvation, undernutrition, and malnutrition. Climate change prediction models forecast changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperature regimes, with impacts particularly on Southern and East Africa. These predictions are especially concerning for the production of major food crops, such as maize, sorghum, millet, and groundnut, because median temperature increases are associated with increased pest pressure and changes in migratory patterns. These factors will result in significantly more pest invasions and an increased need for innovative insect management practices. This review focuses on pest control strategies, highlighting important examples, their economic impact, and new alternative pest control strategies. African policymakers remain hesitant to move forward with establishing biosafety laws and commercializing GM crops, and it is often difficult to implement regulatory measures in smallholder agriculture to increase efficacy.

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“…Process-based models of population dynamics (T-4) can be combined with abundance estimates from monitoring programs to yield short-term predictions of abundance (and therefore risk of forest damage) that can be used to judiciously prepare for and implement suppression programs (Venette et al 2010). Many detection and suppression programs can be improved with refinement of models to predict the seasonal timing of various insect life stages, which are changing and will continue to change due to the sensitivity of insect phenology to temperature (T-3) (Tonnang et al 2017). Some positive examples of successful mitigation include development of chestnut root stocks resistant to Phytophthora (Pereira-Lorenzo et al 2010) and biological control of Gonipterus platensis, a highly invasive defoliator of Eucalyptus, with a wasp from Australia that is an egg parasitoid (Reis et al 2012).…”

Section: Improved Monitoring Prediction and Mitigation Of Establishmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest pests and their management in the Anthropocene

Ayres

Lombardero

2018

Can. J. For. Res.

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Forest managers are facing unprecedented challenges from rapid changes in forest pests. The core causes are changes in climate, land use, and global distributions of organisms. Due to invasions and range expansions by pests, and propagation of nonnative trees, managers are increasingly confronted with pest problems outside their range of experience. There is a need to adapt pest management practices more quickly and efficiently than is possible when managers work in isolation and mainly learn by trial and error. Here we identify general tactics for adaptation of forest pest management in the Anthropocene: growth and application of practical theory; improved biosecurity against future invasions; improved monitoring, prediction, and mitigation; increased sharing of knowledge among regions, countries, and continents; management plans that anticipate continuing change; improved assessment of costs, benefits, and risks of possible responses to new potential pests; assessment of system responses to pest management decisions so that subsequent decisions are increasingly better informed; and improved understanding of the couplings between forests, forest management, and socioeconomic systems. Examples of success in forest management can aid in other sectors (e.g., agriculture, pastoralism, fisheries, and water resources) that are similarly important to our environmental security and similarly challenged by global change.Key words: adaptive management, Anthropocene, climate change, forest pests, forest management. Résumé :Les aménagistes forestiers font face à des défis sans précédent à cause des changements rapides chez les ravageurs forestiers. Les principales causes sont les changements climatiques, l'utilisation des terres et la distribution mondiale des organismes. À cause de l'invasion et de l'expansion de l'aire de répartition des ravageurs ainsi que de la propagation des espèces d'arbres exotiques, les gestionnaires sont de plus en plus confrontés à des problèmes phytosanitaires auxquels ils ne sont pas habitués. On doit adapter les pratiques de gestion des ravageurs plus rapidement et efficacement qu'il est possible de le faire lorsque les gestionnaires travaillent encore en vase clos et apprennent surtout par essais et erreurs. Dans cet article, nous identifions des tactiques générales pour adapter la gestion des ravageurs forestiers dans à l'ère de l'anthropocène : croissance et application de la théorie applicable; meilleure biosécurité face aux invasions futures; amélioration du suivi, des prévisions et des mesures d'atténuation; augmentation du partage des connaissances entre les régions, les pays et les continents; plans d'aménagement qui anticipent le changement continu; meilleure évaluation des coûts, des bénéfices et des risques des réactions possibles face aux nouveaux ravageurs potentiels; évaluation des réactions du système aux décisions de gestion des ravageurs de telle sorte que les décisions ultérieures soient de mieux en mieux éclairées; et meilleure compréhension des relations entre le...

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Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach

Cited by 89 publications

References 99 publications

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Defining biotechnological solutions for insect control in sub‐Saharan Africa

Forest pests and their management in the Anthropocene

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