Advanced Seismic Hazard Assessment

Panza, G. F.; Irikura, Kojiro; Kouteva, M.; Peresan, Antonella; Wang, Z.; Saragoni, Rodolfo

doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0179-9

Cited by 62 publications

(36 citation statements)

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“…A progress in geohazard (earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, tsunami) assessments is based on in-depth analysis of individual hazards. In seismic hazard analysis, recent advances are associated with neo-deterministic approach to hazard assessment [Panza et al, 2010] and data-enhanced probabilistic SHA [Sokolov and Ismail-Zadeh, 2015]. Particularly, tectonically-realistic earthquake simulators help to generate seismicity for a big interval of time and to employ large synthetic seismic events for hazard assessment.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aleatory uncertainties consider the inevitable unpredictability of the parameters: the uncertainties are mainly quantified through the use of the standard deviation of the scatter around the mean values. Although the probabilistic SHA method is dominant in hazard assessment, there are several points of criticism related to this assessment: e.g., validity of a point source model; ground motion uncertainties in the mathematical formulation of the method; and challenges in modeling of the dependencies between large numbers of uncertain random parameters [Panza et al, 2010]. The deterministic SHA is an alternative method for hazard analysis and is based on a specified earthquake scenario.…”

Section: Seismic Hazard Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Geohazard research, modeling, and assessment for disaster risk reduction

Ismail‐Zadeh¹

2016

Russ. J. Earth Sci.

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Scientific understanding of lithosphere dynamics, earthquake occurrence, volcanic eruption, lava flow and other geohazards events as well as geophysical hazard assessments are greatly advanced for the last several decades. Meanwhile despite these major advancements, yet we are not seeing significant disaster risk reduction and a concomitant decline in disaster impacts and losses. There are at least two major issues that should be improved before significant reduction in disaster losses: enhancing geohazards research and integrating it into disaster risk analysis and risk assessment, and convolving the research with policymaking. This paper, presented at the international conference "Data Intensive System Analysis for Geohazard Studies" (Sochi, Russia, 2016), highlights the importance of geohazards studies as a contribution to integrated research on disaster risk. To improve hazard assessments, I present here (i) an alternative approach to the seismic hazard analysis involving information on recorded, historic and simulated earthquakes as well as (ii) advanced quantitative modeling of lava flows due to effusive volcanic eruptions. Risk assessment efforts toward a reduction of disasters are then discussed in the framework of system analysis approach.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Seismic Hazard Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Geohazard research, modeling, and assessment for disaster risk reduction

Ismail‐Zadeh¹

2016

Russ. J. Earth Sci.

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“…Last but not least, a common key requirement for the optimal performance of all kinds of AS systems and devices (but especially of the isolators) is the realistic and reliable definition of seismic input (Martelli 2010;Martelli and Forni 2010;Panza et al 2011), which cannot rely only upon the oversimplified routine probabilistic methods, mainly when dealing with displacements definition (on which the design of isolated structures is based): thus, the ongoing rapid extension of the use of the AS systems and devices requires a considerable improvement of the PSHA approach, which is now in use in several countries (including Italy). Taking into account the mentioned unreliable results shown by PSHA for several violent earthquakes in the last decade (Martelli and Forni 2011b;Panza et al 2011), such a change is very urgent now and can be achieved by complementing PSHA through the development and application of deterministic models, e.g.…”

Section: Costs Of Seismic Isolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Taking into account the mentioned unreliable results shown by PSHA for several violent earthquakes in the last decade (Martelli and Forni 2011b;Panza et al 2011), such a change is very urgent now and can be achieved by complementing PSHA through the development and application of deterministic models, e.g. NDSHA.…”

Section: Costs Of Seismic Isolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Development and Application of Seismic Isolation and Energy Dissipation and Conditions for Their Correct Use

Martelli

Clemente

Stefano

et al. 2014

Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering

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More than 23,000 structures, located in over 30 countries, have been so far protected by passive anti-seismic (AS) systems, mainly by the seismic isolation (SI) and energy dissipation (ED) ones. The use of such systems is going on increasing everywhere, although its extent is strongly influenced by earthquake lessons and the features of the design rules used. As to the latter, SI is considered as an additional safety measure (with consequent significant additional construction costs) in some countries (Japan, USA, etc.), while, in others (including Italy), the codes allow to partly take into account the reduction of the seismic forces acting on the superstructure that is induced by SI. Applications of the AS systems have been made to both new and existing civil and industrial structures of all kinds. The latter include some high risk (HR) plants (nuclear reactors and chemical installations). The applications in a civil context already include not only strategic and A. Martelli (*) ENEA,

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“…That is, the probabilistic estimation of the seismic hazard is a very gross approximation, and often a severe underestimation, of reality. A realistic and reliable estimate of the expected ground motion can be performed by using the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (NDSHA), an innovative modelling technique that takes into account source, propagation and local site effects (for a recent review see Panza et al, 2011). This is done using basic principles of physics about wave generation and propagation in complex media, and does not require to resort to convolutive approaches, that have been proven to be quite unreliable, mainly when dealing with complex geological structures, the most interesting from the practical point of view.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%