Abstract-In the recent past, an increasing interest has been devoted to the possibility of receiving Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages via Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. While the principle has been demonstrated to be a viable option for monitoring vessel traffic over oceans and vaste land areas, the achievable performance from a communications viewpoint is far from optimal. Recently, it was shown how AIS traffic seen at a satellite can be very accurately modeled resorting to simple random access schemes. Leveraging this result, in this work we propose a simple yet flexible analytical framework capable of predicting channel load and overall reception performance taking into account the spatial distribution of vessels as well as their traffic generation pattern. Feeding the model with ship speed and location data derived from experimental settings, we discuss the achievable efficiency for a typical LEO-satellite detecting AIS packets. Moreover, the impact of the receiver footprint on ground on the overall decoding performance is investigated, deriving some interesting insights on the benefits that could stem resorting to narrower-beam systems. In this direction, we discuss two cases: the usage of a LEO satellite with a directional antenna soon to be launched for AIS monitoring, and the possibility of using airliner for receiving vessel-generated traffic.