Advanced Prediction Models for Scouring Around Bridge Abutments: A Comparative Study of Empirical and AI Techniques

Abstract

Scouring is a major concern affecting the overall stability and safety of a bridge. The current research investigated the effectiveness of the various artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and random forest (RF), for scouring depth prediction around a bridge abutment. This study attempted to make a comparative analysis between these AI models and empirical equations developed by various researchers. The current research paper utilized a dataset of water depth (Y), flow velocity (V), discharge (Q), and sediment particle diameter (d50) from a controlled laboratory setting. An efficient optimization tool (MATLAB Optimization Tool (version R2023a)) was used to develop a scour estimation formula around bridge abutments. The findings of the current investigation demonstrated the superior performance of the AI models, especially the ANFIS model, over empirical equations by precisely capturing the non-linear and complex interactions between these parameters. Moreover, the result of the sensitivity analysis demonstrated flow velocity and discharge to be the most influencing parameters affecting the scouring depth around a bridge abutment. The results of the current research highlight the precise and accurate prediction of the scouring depth around a bridge abutment using AI models. However, the empirical equation (Equation 2) demonstrated better performance with a higher R-value of 0.90 and a lower MSE value of 0.0012 compared to other empirical equations. The findings revealed that ANFIS, when combined with neural networks and fuzzy logic systems, produced highly accurate and precise results compared to the ANN models.