Advanced geomagnetic storm forecasting: a risk management tool for electric power system operations

Kappenman, John G.; Radasky, William A.; Gilbert, James L.; Erinmez, L.A.

doi:10.1109/27.902238

Cited by 44 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Kappenman et al, 2000;Erinmez et al, 2002). The ultimate goal in space weather research is to provide forecasts in the same way as normal weather forecasts are given today.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast computation of the geoelectric field using the method of elementary current systems and planar Earth models

Viljanen¹,

Pulkkinen²,

Amm³

et al. 2004

Ann. Geophys.

105

106

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Abstract. The method of spherical elementary current systems provides an accurate modelling of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic variation field. The interpolated magnetic field is used as input to calculate the horizontal geoelectric field. We use planar layered (1-D) models of the Earth's conductivity, and assume that the electric field is related to the local magnetic field by the plane wave surface impedance. There are locations in which the conductivity structure can be approximated by a 1-D model, as demonstrated with the measurements of the Baltic Electromagnetic Array Research project. To calculate geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), we need the spatially integrated electric field typically in a length scale of 100 km. We show that then the spatial variation of the electric field can be neglected if we use the measured or interpolated magnetic field at the site of interest. In other words, even the simple plane wave model is fairly accurate for GIC purposes. Investigating GIC in the Finnish high-voltage power system and in the natural gas pipeline, we find a good agreement between modelled and measured values, with relative errors less than 30% for large GIC values.

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“…Kappenman et al, 2000;Erinmez et al, 2002). The ultimate goal in space weather research is to provide forecasts in the same way as normal weather forecasts are given today.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast computation of the geoelectric field using the method of elementary current systems and planar Earth models

Viljanen¹,

Pulkkinen²,

Amm³

et al. 2004

Ann. Geophys.

105

106

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show abstract

“…In addition to mapping out regions based on geological conductivity to predict GIC distribution, a more influential factor on GICs involves changes in the Earth's magnetic field (Thomson,2009). Together with ground conductivity, these magnetic field changes can generate electric fields which move GICs throughout electrical grids (Kappenman , 2000). GICs also are driven by currents from the earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.…”

Section: Geomagnetic Stormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs)were produced due to the fluctuation in the earth's geomagnetic field caused by the storms. These GICs can flow through power transmission grids (as well as pipelines and undersea cables) and lead to power system problems (Kappenman , 2000). Extra-high-voltage (EHV) transformers and transmission lines-built to increase the reliability of electric power systems in cases of terrestrial hazards-are particularly vulnerable to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs)with recent estimates stating that 300 large EHV transformers would be vulnerable to GICs in the United States (NAS, 2008).…”

Section: Geomagnetic Stormsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Wind: Origin, Properties and Impact on Earth

Kumar¹,

Kurian²

2012

Exploring the Solar Wind

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“…The derivation of the geomagnetic field disturbances is performed by two-dimensional 357 calculations of a gaussian spatial profile for an electrojet over a layered (with depth) ground conductivity profile. Figure 13 illustrates a comparison of a predicted versus an observed magnetic field disturbance [Kappenman, 2000].…”

Section: Defining New Standards For Storm Forecast Capabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Note that the computed and measured current flowing at a particular point in the network compare very well. Agreement on the order of a factor of 2 is certainly reasonable given the goal of providing advanced warnings to utilities of an impending geomagnetic storm that could impact the normal operation of their power grid [Kappenman, 2000].…”

Section: Defining New Standards For Storm Forecast Capabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards

Daglis¹

2001

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Subject Terms Report Classification unclassified Classification of this page unclassified Classification of Abstract unclassified Limitation of Abstract UU Number of Pages 486REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, -to review recent spacecraft measurements that have provided new insight into the dynamics and effects of space storms; -to review space weather hazards associated with space storms and pertinent to the operation of technological systems in space and on ground;-to discuss and assess methods of space weather forecasting, as well as national and international initiatives towards an efficient development of space climatology.Space weather, the invisible but nevertheless effective result of solar activity and solar-terrestrial coupling, has affected the operations of communication systems since the appearance of telegraph in the 19th century, though as an unknown trouble factor. Nowadays, the effects of space weather affect in various ways all communication modes, from cable to wireless to space-based systems. Moreover, space weather hazards include malfunction or even permanent damage of power distribution grids and of telecommunication, navigation and surveillance satellites, disturbances of over-the-horizon (OTH) radar, HF, VHF and UHF communications, surveying and navigation systems that use Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, surveillance (optical and radar), and satellite tracking. Space weather influences on the Earth's weather and climate is still a developing topic. Little is known concerning the biological effects of space weather, especially regarding astronauts.This Institute could not be timelier. Space Weather, which has been defined as "conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life", encompasses a broad range of phenomena impacting both space science and technology. The effects of Space Weather, while present throughout the solar cycle, gain particular prominence around the peak of the 11-year sunspot activity; the maximum of cycle 23 occurred in summer 2000.The fact that this ASI on Space Weather was held in Europe is particularly appropriate. European countries host a considerable repository of knowledge and world-class facilities in this field. Nevertheless, while Space Weather activities in c...

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Advanced geomagnetic storm forecasting: a risk management tool for electric power system operations

Cited by 44 publications

References 7 publications

Fast computation of the geoelectric field using the method of elementary current systems and planar Earth models

Fast computation of the geoelectric field using the method of elementary current systems and planar Earth models

Solar Wind: Origin, Properties and Impact on Earth

Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards

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